The latest-starting game on college football's conference championship weekend is the Big Ten title game featuring No. 1 Ohio State facing No. 8 Wisconsin from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Kickoff is 8 p.m. ET with the Buckeyes, who are on an 18-game winning streak, as 16.5-point favorites on the NCAA odds. The over-under for total points is 56.
That total seems a bit high when considering that Ohio State ranks fourth nationally in allowing 11.8 points per game and No. 1 in the country in total defense in giving up 232.3 yards per game, while Wisconsin is No. 9 in scoring defense (14.6 ppg) and No. 6 in yards allowed (277.0). In addition, the schools combined for 45 points on Oct. 26 in Columbus, a 38-7 Buckeyes victory. The weather was a factor that day and won't be in the dome Saturday night. Expect Wisconsin to double team star Ohio State defensive end Chase Young, the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, this time as he had four sacks in the first meeting.
The 16.5-point spread is the largest in this series since Nov. 3, 2007, when the Buckeyes were -16 at home and beat the Badgers 38-17. It's also the biggest Wisconsin has been an underdog to any team since then. Believe it or not, UW won its previous two games as at least a 16-point dog prior to that 2007 Buckeyes game. Wisconsin was +14.5 earlier this year at OSU.
Ohio State has won nine of the past 10 in the series and covered in eight of those. The lone Wisconsin straight-up win was on Oct. 16, 2010, a 31-18 home upset when the Badgers were 4-point dogs.
OSU and UW have combined to play in 11 Big Ten Championship Games and have played each other twice. The Buckeyes won 59-0 in 2014 and 27-21 in 2017. They are playoff locks with a victory Saturday and probably get in even with a loss. Hard to see a path for the Badgers to the playoff even with a shocking blowout victory.
