Super Bowl 58 odds: Chiefs good value to repeat in 2024 in Las Vegas, but proven model makes 49ers favorites
If you think Super Bowl 57 was a party in the Phoenix area, just wait until Super Bowl 58 on Feb. 11, 2024, at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas – the first Super Bowl held in Sin City. Fresh off their win over the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, the Kansas City Chiefs have opened as +550 favorites at Caesars Sportsbook to repeat next year. The San Francisco 49ers are +600 second favorites, but the SportsLine Projection Model (see below) favors San Francisco overall. The 2022 non-playoff team with the shortest odds is the Detroit Lions at +3000.
No team has repeated as Super Bowl champion since the Patriots following the 2004 season. Kansas City is gong to be a favorite for the next decade or so as long as Patrick Mahomes, now a rare member of the two-time regular-season MVP and two-time Super Bowl MVP Award club, stays healthy. His fellow future Hall of Famer, head coach Andy Reid, brushed aside any retirement talk after Sunday's win.Â
Kansas City ended a few trends by beating the Eagles, who joined the 2016 Falcons as the only teams in Super Bowl history to lose when leading at halftime by double digits:
- The previous nine regular-season MVPs to the reach Super Bowl had all lost.
- The previous six individual regular-season passing yardage leaders to reach the Super Bowl had all lost.
- The previous eight teams to win the coin toss at the Super Bowl had all lost.
The Chiefs' top free agents are offensive tackle Orlando Brown Jr. and receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster. Backup quarterback Chad Henne has retired. Kansas City will host Philadelphia in the 2023 regular season – could it be the Kickoff Game?
Philly has opened as a +800 fourth favorite to win the next Super Bowl. Offensive coordinator Shane Steichen is leaving to be the head coach in Indianapolis and defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon might be leaving to be Arizona's head coach – Gannon didn't have a great Super Bowl, though. No team in NFL history had ever lost a Super Bowl when scoring 35 points.
Philadelphia has key free agents in defensive linemen Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham and Javon Hargrave, cornerback James Bradberry (whose defensive holding call late essentially clinched the game for K.C.) and center Jason Kelce.
The Niners have quarterback concerns entering the offseason with both Brock Purdy and Trey Lance coming off major injuries and Tom Brady no longer an option. Apparently, Aaron Rodgers isn't one either.Â
As for the Lions, they remain the lone NFC team to never play in a Super Bowl but took a huge step forward in 2022 with nine wins, including knocking Green Bay out of Wild-Card contention with an upset victory at Lambeau Field in the final game of the regular season. Detroit won eight of its final 10 games and has the No. 6 (via Matthew Stafford trade from Rams) and No. 18 picks in the first round of this year's draft to work with. At least one of those picks will likely be used to bolster Detroit's lackluster defense.
Detroit has the lowest odds to win Super Bowl 58 among all NFC North teams. I can't remember the last time that happened. The Lions are scheduled to visit the Chiefs next season and it's possible they could meet in the Kickoff Game.Â
Below are the initial SportsLine Projection Model sims for next season.
| AFCÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â | PWRÂ Â Â | PWRÂ Â Â SIM | WINS Â | DIVÂ Â | PLAYOFFÂ Â | AFCÂ Â Â | SB ODDSÂ Â Â | SB |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 1 | 69.00% | 11.4 | 76.10% | 91.10% | 30.51% | +550 (15.4%) | 17.72% |
| Buffalo Bills | 2 | 67.00% | 11.8 | 76.10% | 94.00% | 29.78% | +650 (13.3%) | 16.39% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 5 | 62.20% | 10.2 | 45.70% | 73.00% | 11.36% | +900 (10%) | 5.54% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 8 | 56.10% | 9.6 | 27.40% | 59.80% | 5.87% | +3500 (2.8%) | 2.66% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 13 | 51.70% | 9.6 | 55.10% | 67.20% | 5.80% | +2800 (3.4%) | 2.15% |
| New England Patriots | 9 | 54.80% | 8.9 | 14.70% | 47.80% | 3.93% | +5000 (2%) | 1.75% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 12 | 51.90% | 8.7 | 18.30% | 44.80% | 3.61% | +5000 (2%) | 1.52% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 10 | 52.70% | 8.4 | 13.60% | 39.50% | 2.77% | +2200 (4.3%) | 1.09% |
| Tennessee Titans | 26 | 41.70% | 8.4 | 29.30% | 42.30% | 1.58% | +7000 (1.4%) | 0.51% |
| Miami Dolphins | 18 | 47.90% | 7.5 | 4.20% | 20.80% | 1.02% | +3500 (2.8%) | 0.42% |
| Cleveland Browns | 19 | 46.50% | 7.3 | 8.60% | 26.50% | 1.01% | +4500 (2.2%) | 0.40% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 22 | 44.40% | 7.4 | 5.50% | 19.90% | 0.67% | +4000 (2.4%) | 0.27% |
| New York Jets | 23 | 42.80% | 7.7 | 5.00% | 24.10% | 0.74% | +3500 (2.8%) | 0.25% |
| Denver Broncos | 29 | 40.60% | 7.5 | 4.80% | 20.20% | 0.59% | +4500 (2.2%) | 0.16% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 25 | 41.70% | 7 | 8.80% | 16.10% | 0.49% | +8000 (1.2%) | 0.16% |
| Houston Texans | 31 | 36.80% | 6.7 | 6.80% | 12.90% | 0.28% | +12500 (0.8%) | 0.09% |
| Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
| NFC | PWR | PWR SIM | WINS | DIV | PLAYOFF | NFC | SB ODDS | SB |
| San Francisco 49ers | 3 | 66.80% | 12.6 | 85.60% | 95.80% | 35.84% | +600 (14.3%) | 19.89% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 4 | 64.90% | 11.2 | 62.90% | 91.60% | 23.47% | +800 (11.1%) | 12.04% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 6 | 61.00% | 10.2 | 32.00% | 77.90% | 11.69% | +1600 (5.9%) | 5.52% |
| Green Bay Packers | 7 | 57.60% | 10 | 50.70% | 74.80% | 9.55% | +3500 (2.8%) | 4.31% |
| New Orleans Saints | 11 | 52.20% | 9.3 | 53.00% | 66.20% | 5.09% | +5000 (2%) | 1.95% |
| Detroit Lions | 14 | 51.40% | 9 | 25.90% | 55.40% | 3.70% | +3000 (3.2%) | 1.56% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 15 | 50.90% | 8.6 | 10.20% | 46.10% | 2.90% | +5500 (1.8%) | 0.99% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 16 | 50.70% | 8.3 | 20.10% | 42.20% | 2.65% | +5000 (2%) | 0.98% |
| Carolina Panthers | 20 | 45.80% | 7.9 | 20.70% | 35.00% | 1.63% | +7000 (1.4%) | 0.56% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 28 | 40.60% | 7.7 | 17.50% | 31.50% | 0.97% | +8000 (1.2%) | 0.29% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 17 | 49.70% | 6.4 | 8.70% | 14.90% | 0.69% | +5000 (2%) | 0.26% |
| New York Giants | 21 | 44.60% | 7 | 3.10% | 19.20% | 0.72% | +3500 (2.8%) | 0.21% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 27 | 40.90% | 6.4 | 3.30% | 17.10% | 0.49% | +3500 (2.8%) | 0.16% |
| Washington Commanders | 24 | 42.50% | 6.1 | 2.10% | 13.00% | 0.37% | +7000 (1.4%) | 0.10% |
| Chicago Bears | 32 | 34.30% | 6.4 | 3.30% | 11.90% | 0.11% | +10000 (1%) | 0.04% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 30 | 38.10% | 6 | 1.00% | 7.50% | 0.13% | +10000 (1%) | 0.04% |
So which 2023 Fantasy baseball busts, breakouts, and sleepers should you target or fade in your drafts? Visit SportsLine's Fantasy baseball cheat sheets now to get rankings for every single position, all from the model that called Joey Votto's disappointing season, and find out. Â
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