I think this series will be closer than a lot of people expect, and I think the Canadiens can take a game in Tampa Bay this series. The Canadiens were much better on the road all season long and they’ve played in Tampa plenty of times, so there won’t be any fear factor. The value is going to be on the Canadiens all series long and tonight’s game has an implied probability of 67% at -200 with the juice for the Lightning. However, I think the Candiens win this game at least 40% of the time, maybe even closer to 45% considering who they have in net. Take the value on the Canadiens.

These two teams obviously have not played each other this season although they do know each other well from the Atlantic division. Carey Price and Andrei Vasilevskiy have been the two best goalies in the playoffs and I don’t think that will change for the Stanley Cup Finals. There should be a good amount of time spent feeling each other out in this game, so while I do think there is a risk to push with the total at 5, there shouldn’t be too many goals. The Canadiens penalty kill didn’t allow a power play goal to the Knights all series. The Lightning have one of the best power plays in the league but if the Canadiens hold them off the scoreboard on the power play they should hit the under.

Fairly big COVID news in that Montreal's Joel Armia is in protocols and didn't travel with the team to Tampa. Technically, he hasn't been ruled out of Game 1 yet but hard to see how he plays. Armia has eight points in these playoffs and is plus-4; he's a big part of the team's penalty kill. (Montreal coach Dominique Ducharme remains out in protocols.) I was leaning Tampa regardless but this somewhat helps justify the big price. The Habs have dropped their past six in Tampa, although they didn't play this season.

Jump on this total while you can -- a lot of books have it at 5 goals, and I doubt this stays at 5.5 long, although the Under is a pretty sizable favorite. The average score of an NHL playoff game is essentially 3-2. Three of Montreal's games vs. Vegas ended with that exact score and none of them went Over 5 goals. Only two of the Lightning's games vs. the Islanders saw more than 5 goals.