Steelers vs. Bengals NFL Week 12 odds: Pittsburgh begins post-Matt Canada era after firing offensive coordinator

The Internet can be hilarious at times. Two of the top trending terms on Twitter/X right now are "Matt Canada" and "Happy Thanksgiving." I promise you those are at least somewhat related with Steelers fans celebrating the firing of Canada, the team's embattled offensive coordinator, on Tuesday. That has not yet affected the spread or total for Sunday's game in Cincinnati, but I fully expect a massive influx of Pittsburgh money because of the move.

The Steelers got to face a rookie fifth-round quarterback on Sunday in Cleveland in a huge AFC North game, and Pittsburgh's excellent defense held the Browns to 10 points. Yet the Steelers still managed to lose with the offense managing just 10 points and 249 total yards – granted, against an excellent Browns defense. That was apparently the final straw for team president Art Rooney II, who made the decision to jettison Canada. 

Pittsburgh has not just been outgained in every game this season but has failed to reach 400 total yards in 58 straight games, the second-longest such streak in NFL history.

With second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett regressing, the Steelers rank 31st in passing yards (170.1 ypg), 29th in passer rating (76.6), and 28th in scoring (16.6 PPG) and total offense (280.1 YPG). In recent weeks, the offense has gotten even more conservative. Pickett ranked 17th in average pass length through Week 8 at 7.6 yards but ranks 29th since at 5.4 yards. He is just 10-for-22 for 116 yards when targeting top wideouts Diontae Johnson and George Pickens in the last two games, with both receivers showing frustration. Pickett is 1-for-6 when targeting Pickens at least 15 yards downfield in the last four games. Pickett was 10-for-15 when targeting Pickens in that scenario in the first six games.

Pickett has the second-highest off-target rate (14.6%) in NFL this season despite the seventh-shortest average pass length (7.0). He's gone six straight starts without a turnover but also has just two TDs in that span. He has the lowest passing touchdown percentage (1.9%) by any QB with at least 500 attempts since 1970.

Pittsburgh scored 10 points or fewer four times this season, tied for second fewest behind the Giants' five games. Yet the team is 6-4, the best record by any team in NFL history to be outgained in 10 straight games within a season, and a -135 favorite at DraftKings to reach the playoffs (+110 to not). Pittsburgh has never finished with a losing record under head coach Mike Tomlin and is set at over/under 9.5 wins.

"Matt Canada has been relieved on his duties as offensive coordinator. I appreciate Matt's hard work and dedication and I wish him the best moving forward in his career," Tomlin said in a statement.

Since Canada was named to replace Randy Fichtner as coordinator in 2021, the Steelers have averaged 18.6 PPG and scored 30 or more points just twice in 44 games. The team has not immediately made it clear will replace Canada for the final seven games, although it is expected to have running backs coach Eddie Faulkner take over as offensive coordinator, with quarterback coach Mike Sullivan as the play-caller per CBS NFL Insider Josina Anderson.

Canada's firing marks the first time the Steelers have made a head coach or coordinator change midseason since 1941. That season the Steelers had three head coaches in Bert Bell (0-2 record and was the half-owner of the team), Aldo Donelli (0-5) and Walt Kiesling (1-2-1).

The Steelers are -1.5 on the SportsLine consensus for Sunday's game in Cincinnati and have an over/under team total of 17.5 points. With Joe Burrow out of the season, Cincy's Jake Browning can become the first quarterback since Brett Favre in 1992 to beat the Steelers in his first career start. Cleveland rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson beat the Steelers in his second career start in Week 11. The last time the Steelers lost back-to-back games vs. QBs making their first two career starts was 1966 (Terry Nofsinger and Jack Concannon).

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