The Chiefs have clinched the AFC West and trail New England by one game for the No. 2 seed in the conference. Coach Andy Reid's team is 20-7 ATS versus division rivals over the last five years. Kansas City is 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS against teams with a losing record, as well as 4-1 ATS in its last five overall. QB Drew Lock, who makes his third start for the Broncos, has used his strong arm to make plays but forces throws like most young quarterbacks.

The Chiefs have one of the NFL's best offenses but that's mostly due to their passing attack, and not only is Patrick Mahomes coming off a bruised hand to face a Denver defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest passing yards in the league, it's also expected to snow throughout this game. The Chiefs blew out the Broncos in Week 7, but Drew Lock has looked pretty good in his two starts, and the Chiefs are actually worse ATS at home than on the road this season. Grab the points.

The weather forecast says there's an 85% chance of snow throughout this game. Patrick Mahomes said earlier in the week that he could finally grip the ball after bruising his hand, but that might not be so easy with temps in the 20s and snow. Despite the O/U line having dropped a point and the Chiefs being involved, it's not likely we'll see a shootout here. Take the Under.

The Chiefs have an underrated defense, while Denver's stop unit continues to impress under Vic Fangio. Back the Under to improve to 6-0 in K.C.'s last six divisional games.

Drew Lock has been a very pleasant surprise for Broncos fans in his first two starts, but this is the toughest test he'll have faced so far. The Chiefs are at home and are now within reach of a first-round bye after beating the Patriots last week. I expect it to be a long afternoon for the Broncos offense, but I don't like the spread. Instead, I'll go with a trend many might not be aware of. Since Andy Reid took over in KC, the Under has gone 35-16-1 when the Chiefs are home favorites.