The Miami Heat are missing 4 starters. But really this is about OKC's constant undervalue by the market. This season the Thunder are 24-16 (60%) ATS and 10-2 (83%) ATS as road underdog's. Our SportslineAI model has OKC winning this game by 3 points but I am taking the points due to the fact that Miami will be unpredictable with so many players out. Lastly, OKC is more than just Shai Gilgeous-Alexander but it is going to be an SGA night, the Thunder will be playing on National TV for the first time since September 2020, if that isn't motivation, i don't know what is.

Miami will be without four starters in Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry and Caleb Martin -- plus a few reserves. That has dropped this from Heat -4 to -2. Oklahoma City is a ton better this season yet still shaky away, but I have to take these few points.