Seth Lugo has allowed just three runs in four starts this year, but he's also been very fortunate in who he's faced; the White Sox have been the worst team in the league and he's got them twice, the Astros have struggled all year and the Twins are well below average in scoring. Baltimore is third in runs per game and just destroyed a much better pitcher in Cole Ragans and they've scored at least four runs in 16 of their 20 games. Lugo is also one of 10 qualified pitchers to strike out less than 13% of batters despite his gaudy ERA. I think the Orioles score more on him today than he's allowed in his four previous starts combined.