Kyle Hendricks has been knocked around in his first two starts this season and I expect a little positive regression today against the Padres, a team that's scored more than four runs just once in their last eight games while scoring two or fewer five times in that stretch. Hendricks is the furthest thing from a strikeout pitcher, but four Ks isn't much to ask for, as it's something he did in 15 of his 24 starts last year (and in each of his last seven starts against the Padres, including one last year). His projection on Ks today should be closer to 4 than 3 despite what these odds say.

The Cubs offense works pitchers incredibly hard. They are among the league leaders in walks, on-base percentage and pitches seen. They score runs in bunches. In the last week, they've held Joe Musgrove to four innings (and he had allowed zero runs through four before falling apart in the fifth), Yu Darvish to three, Yoshinobu Yamamoto to five and Bobby Miller to 1 2/3. I just can't see Cease with his penchant for control issues to get through six against this lineup.