Don't feel like playing another -200-plus favorite, so we'll take the Phils at -130 on the runline. Philadelphia starter Ranger Suarez was better on the road (3.20 ERA) and during the day (2.81 ERA) and had a 3.21 ERA vs. Atlanta. The Braves could be quite rusty having not played since last Wednesday. Max Fried hasn't pitched since Sept. 30 and was 0-1 with a 3.13 ERA this year against Philadelphia.

The Braves are 11-8 against the Phillies this season and 6-3 at home. Ranger Suarez pitched well against the Braves the last two times he faced them, but really struggled against them in the three outings before that. The Phillies main strength in the first two games of the postseason was their pitching, so I think they will need another dominant start to win this game. Max Fried has three quality starts against the Phillies this season, and the fourth appearance was a five inning, one run outing. The Braves have the massive bullpen advantage, but the Phillies dominate left-handed pitching ranked 4th in the league in wOBA. Well, the Braves are even better ranked 2nd in the league in wOBA against lefties.