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Tue 08/16 | 11:05 PM UTC | Pittsburgh
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Boston Red Sox 75-81, -1477 ML
BOS -1.5+118
BOS -145
Over 8+110
Pittsburgh Pirates 59-97, -1561 ML
PIT +1.5-140
PIT +122
Under 8-130

Expert Picks

MLB | Boston 5 @ Pittsburgh 3 | 08/16 | 11:05 PM UTC

Pittsburgh +1.5

LOSS

ANALYSIS: Pittsburgh put third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes on the IL today. Boston gets back leadoff man Enrique Hernandez from the 60-day IL (although he may not hit leadoff immediately). However, All-Star shortstop Xander Bogaerts is sitting in a surprise, so I've just changed my mind mid-sentence and will take Pittsburgh on the runline (-140) because it's cheaper than the Sox ML (-145). Mitch Keller was once a very touted pitching prospect for the Bucs. His career ERA is 5.32, but Keller has a 2.23 ERA over his last six outings since July 11. He has allowed three or fewer earned runs in 11 of his last 13 starts since returning to the rotation on May 31. (Note: It's not Roansy Contreras on the mound -- he's starting Wednesday). Boston's Nick Pivetta is 0-4 with a 7.97 ERA in eight starts since the beginning of July.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+5228 345-202-1 IN LAST 548 MLB PICKS
+339 9-4 IN LAST 13 PIT ATS PICKS

Season Splits

75-81, -1477 ML
59-97, -1561 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
49%
58-59, -563
45-71, -712
38%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
50%
29-29, +80
24-30, +17
44%
As Favorite
STATUS
As Underdog or Even
56%
33-25, -168
36-65, -798
35%
When Line was -158 to -128
MONEY LINE
When Line was +105 to +135
47%
11-12, -405
9-17, -646
34%
As Road Favorite
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Underdog
59%
13-9, +93
16-25, -93
39%
vs Teams That Win <46% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win 46-54% of Games
57%
26-19, +17
12-23, -837
34%
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
52%
33-30, -352
26-31, -30
45%
After a Day Off
REST
After a Day Off
61%
8-5, +226
2-14, -1003
12%
vs PIT
HEAD TO HEAD
vs BOS
100%
1-0, +70
0-1, -100
0%
when Nick Pivetta starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Mitch Keller starts
50%
12-12, -111
6-15, -592
28%