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Wed 07/06 | 10:40 PM UTC | Cincinnati
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
N.Y. Mets 76-42, +1367 ML
NYM -1.5-115
NYM -170
Over 9.5-110
Cincinnati Reds 46-70, -1089 ML
CIN +1.5-105
CIN +143
Under 9.5-110

Expert Picks

MLB | N.Y. Mets 8 @ Cincinnati 3 | 07/06 | 10:40 PM UTC

N.Y. Mets -170

WIN

ANALYSIS: Bit of a watered-down Cincinnati lineup with Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas, Tyler Naquin and Aramis Garcia all out due to injury/rest/matchup vs. Mets lefty David Peterson (5-1, 3.24). He is coming off the paternity list after his wife gave birth to a baby boy. I'm not sure if that means good things tonight or bad (i.e. really tired). Peterson is 2-0 with a 2.17 ERA (seven earned runs/29.0 innings) with nine walks and 29 strikeouts on the road this year. Opponents are hitting .180 against him in away games. Reds rookie Graham Ashcraft (4-2, 4.53) has not been good in three of his past four outings.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+3203 289-177-1 IN LAST 467 MLB PICKS
+319 16-9 IN LAST 25 CIN ML PICKS
+1607 37-15 IN LAST 52 NYM ML PICKS

Season Splits

76-42, +1367 ML
46-70, -1089 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
61%
50-31, +785
28-52, -1636
35%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
57%
24-18, +343
14-26, -918
35%
As Favorite
STATUS
As Underdog or Even
68%
39-18, +789
23-42, -997
35%
When Line was -185 to -155
MONEY LINE
When Line was +129 to +159
75%
12-4, +310
11-10, +567
52%
As Road Favorite
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Underdog
64%
16-9, +237
9-17, -379
34%
vs Teams That Win <46% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
64%
22-12, +290
12-30, -1068
28%
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing 3.9 to 4.2 Runs
61%
26-16, +334
5-12, -573
29%
3rd game without a day off
REST
3rd game without a day off
61%
35-22, +581
22-36, -772
37%
vs CIN
HEAD TO HEAD
vs NYM
50%
1-1, -43
1-1, +85
50%
when David Peterson starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Graham Ashcraft starts
80%
8-2, +473
6-2, +646
75%