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Wed 05/18 | 7:10 PM UTC | Denver
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
San Francisco Giants 40-38, -714 ML
SF -1.5-110
SF -170
Over 11-110
Colorado Rockies 35-45, -356 ML
COL +1.5-110
COL +150
Under 11-110

Expert Picks

San Francisco 3 @ Colorado 5 | 05/18 | 7:10 PM UTC

UNDER 11

WIN

ANALYSIS: Tail me at your risk because totals aren't generally my thing, but that this has risen to 11 has me taking a shot on the Under. I am well aware that five straight games in Denver have gone Over this total. Winds shouldn't be a factor at Coors Field -- maybe even blowing in a bit -- and we have the whole day after night game so a regular or two may sit (indeed, a few are on each side). Plus, the shadows could benefit pitchers later in the game. The Giants' Logan Webb has a 3.48 ERA on the season so he'll probably hold the Rox to 3-4 runs. Colorado's Kyle Freeland has a 4,91 ERA but had been very good of late before being torched by the Royals last time out. He has a 3.94 ERA in 17 career starts vs. the Giants, who are hitting nearly 35 points lower this year vs. lefties than right-handers. Both these teams hit much worse in day games. The SportsLine Projection Model has 9.8 runs being scored.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+1651 205-129 IN LAST 334 MLB PICKS

Season Splits

40-38, -714 ML
35-45, -356 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
59%
22-15, +57
18-19, -41
48%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
57%
11-8, +74
13-9, +388
59%
As Favorite
STATUS
As Underdog or Even
66%
20-10, +298
10-14, -124
41%
When Line was -180 to -150
MONEY LINE
When Line was +128 to +158
50%
4-4, -151
4-5, +52
44%
As Road Favorite
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Underdog
75%
9-3, +315
5-4, +305
55%
vs Teams That Win 46-54% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
66%
6-3, +74
4-6, -164
40%
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing 3.9 to 4.2 Runs
71%
10-4, +172
2-6, -351
25%
3rd game without a day off
REST
3rd game without a day off
65%
17-9, +308
13-14, +16
48%
vs COL
HEAD TO HEAD
vs SF
83%
5-1, +161
1-5, -357
16%
when Logan Webb starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Kyle Freeland starts
75%
6-2, +203
4-4, +30
50%