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Tue 05/17 | 10:10 PM UTC | Cleveland
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Cincinnati Reds 27-52, -1821 ML
CIN +1.5-150
CIN +135
Over 8-120
Cleveland Guardians 40-38, +135 ML
CLE -1.5+130
CLE -155
Under 8+100

Expert Picks

Cincinnati 5 @ Cleveland 4 | 05/17 | 10:10 PM UTC

Cleveland -163

LOSS

ANALYSIS: Ohio Cup action! I'm a tad leery of Guardians pitcher Zach Plesac (1-3, 4.68), but his home ERA is a reasonable 3.71, and the Reds are putrid on the road (4-17) ... even though Cincinnati pitcher Connor Overton (1-0, 1.59 ERA) has much better numbers than Plesac does. Overton's career numbers in both the Show and the minors would indicate this is a fluke in 2022. If this were in Cincinnati, maybe I'd pass.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+1651 205-129 IN LAST 334 MLB PICKS
+440 6-1 IN LAST 7 CLE ML PICKS
+509 12-5 IN LAST 17 CIN ML PICKS

Season Splits

27-52, -1821 ML
40-38, +135 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
25%
9-26, -1463
16-17, +3
48%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
19%
4-17, -1194
7-5, +298
58%
As Underdog or Even
STATUS
As Favorite
25%
8-23, -1235
6-2, +244
75%
When Line was +124 to +154
MONEY LINE
When Line was -177 to -147
37%
3-5, -63
2-0, +131
100%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
20%
4-16, -1094
2-1, +35
66%
vs Teams That Win 46-54% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win <46% of Games
0%
0-3, -300
1-0, +109
100%
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
38%
5-8, -272
3-2, +66
60%
After a Day Off
REST
After a Day Off
33%
2-4, -146
1-6, -535
14%
vs CLE
HEAD TO HEAD
vs CIN
0%
0-2, -200
2-0, +201
100%
when Connor Overton starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Zach Plesac starts
66%
2-1, +113
2-4, -110
33%