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Mon 05/16 | 11:40 PM UTC | Milwaukee
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Atlanta Braves 48-34, -244 ML
ATL +1.5-150
ATL +150
Over 7.5-120
Milwaukee Brewers 47-37, -361 ML
MIL -1.5+130
MIL -170
Under 7.5+100

Expert Picks

Atlanta 0 @ Milwaukee 1 | 05/16 | 11:40 PM UTC

Milwaukee -150

WIN

ANALYSIS: Frankly, I am starting to get tired of these lines jumping 10-20 cents after the lineups are out and before the lineups are made public, but apparently that's just another house edge we have to deal with now. However, the Braves will be without Ronald Acuna Jr. and their top two relievers in Kenley Jansen and AJ Minter would be pitching their third straight day if they were to appear. The Brewers will probably still be without Andrew McCutchen on the COVID IL and Willy Adames who left last night’s game early with an injury, but they have still been the best team against righties in the past two weeks. The Brewers have been much better at home this season at 10-4 and the Braves have been playing sloppy lately. They made multiple errors in each of their last two games in critical moments. That doesn’t just get cleaned up overnight, clearly. Ian Anderson has been pitching well but he doesn’t usually get deep into the game, and he has walk issues. Freddy Peralta has been good as well and he has been able to avoid the walk issues that have plagued him in the past. Take the Brewers at home.

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John Bollman

The Executive
+828 179-148 IN LAST 327 MLB ML PICKS
+1299 23-13 IN LAST 36 MIL ML PICKS
+2194 43-20 IN LAST 63 ATL ML PICKS

Season Splits

48-34, -244 ML
47-37, -361 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
45%
16-19, -639
22-13, +101
62%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
42%
6-8, -197
10-4, +124
71%
As Underdog or Even
STATUS
As Favorite
46%
6-7, -81
20-11, +56
64%
When Line was +127 to +157
MONEY LINE
When Line was -180 to -150
100%
1-0, +133
8-4, +68
66%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
45%
5-6, -74
10-4, +124
71%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
50%
3-3, -4
3-5, -271
37%
vs Teams Allowing <3.9 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing 3.9 to 4.2 Runs
50%
3-3, -4
3-4, -171
42%
3rd game without a day off
REST
3rd game without a day off
43%
10-13, -467
17-9, +159
65%
vs MIL
HEAD TO HEAD
vs ATL
66%
2-1, +63
1-2, -112
33%
when Ian Anderson starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Freddy Peralta starts
66%
4-2, +171
4-2, +20
66%