Simulation Picks
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Expert Picks
Frankly, I am starting to get tired of these lines jumping 10-20 cents after the lineups are out and before the lineups are made public, but apparently that's just another house edge we have to deal with now. However, the Braves will be without Ronald Acuna Jr. and their top two relievers in Kenley Jansen and AJ Minter would be pitching their third straight day if they were to appear. The Brewers will probably still be without Andrew McCutchen on the COVID IL and Willy Adames who left last night’s game early with an injury, but they have still been the best team against righties in the past two weeks. The Brewers have been much better at home this season at 10-4 and the Braves have been playing sloppy lately. They made multiple errors in each of their last two games in critical moments. That doesn’t just get cleaned up overnight, clearly. Ian Anderson has been pitching well but he doesn’t usually get deep into the game, and he has walk issues. Freddy Peralta has been good as well and he has been able to avoid the walk issues that have plagued him in the past. Take the Brewers at home.
Milwaukee is 10-4 at home and draws a reasonable price Monday at American Family Field. Freddy Peralta has allowed a total of five earned runs over his last four starts and comes off an eight-strikeout performance vs. Cincinnati. He also has a strong track record against the current Braves' lineup. Look for the Brewers to improve to 6-1 in their last seven series openers.