The Rockies aren't nearly a heavy enough favorite here. Cubs starter Jake Arrieta is totally cooked. He comes in with a 6.20 ERA and that's after he was good for his first five starts. In 13 starts since then, it's an 8.23 ERA. He's tasked with facing a Rockies team that is 34-21 and averages 5.56 runs per game in Coors Field. Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela has a 3.75 ERA at home compared to 6.03 on the road. The Cubs' offense isn't anything to write home about these days. Even in Wednesday's win, they only scored three runs and that came on a ball that could've been caught. Rockies, easily.

The Rockies scored two runs yesterday then stayed quiet the rest of the game. I don’t see that happening against Jake Arrieta today. Antonio Senzatela has also been much better at home with a 3.75 ERA, and the Rockies are significantly better at home. Take the Rockies.

As I've said in this space and the Early Edge all week, I'll be FADING the Cubs in nearly every road game the rest of the season. Probably plenty at home, too. Yep, they burned me in a bit of a fluke on Wednesday, but this still will be a winning strategy overall. The Rockies will go with Antonio Senzatela, who hasn't pitched in about a month after a bout with COVID. His splits are much better at home and during the day. Chicago's Jake Arrieta might be the worst pitcher in the National League right now with a 9.55 ERA over his past eight, and he has really been hammered in three career starts at Coors Field.