Nathan Eovaldi is 4-2 with a 3.63 ERA this season but is coming off a quality start in Texas. He faces Spencer Turnbull, who is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA this season. Turnbull has made just three starts, performing worse in each one. The Tigers are 2-8 in their last 10 games, and the Red Sox really had no business being in Wednesday's contest, but Detroit's relievers gave up a game-tying, two-run homer in the eighth, got out of a bases-loaded jam in the ninth, then almost blew a three-run lead in extra innings before holding on for a 6-5 win. Take Boston to win the series finale.

The Tigers snapped a six-game skid with a 10-inning upset in Boston on Wednesday, but I expect a Red Sox rout here (-103 on runline) behind ace Nathan Eovaldi (4-2, 2.63). Eovaldi is 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA in three starts against the Tigers, but he hasn't faced them since 2015. That just means few Detroit batters have seen his nasty stuff; the Tigers also are giving Miguel Cabrera the day off, although he hasn't been very good. They start Spencer Turnbull (1-2, 4.50) -- he of the 3-17 record back in 2019. Turnbull isn't that bad these days but still not great.

This one hurt last night. Boston had so many chances and even after giving up three runs in the top of the 10th was able to bring the go-ahead run to the plate. So why go back to it? Well according to SDQL, the Tigers have lost all 16 games since Aug. 29, 2017, as a road dog coming off a one-run road win. That is hard to ignore. Also I love Nathan Eovaldi in this day game home spot, and the Red Sox do better than average at home in day games and against righties. I clearly love taking highly favorited teams ATS at a good price, as they win dominantly with enough frequency to make it worth it. I'm on Boston.