Carlos Martinez has started three games this season, and he has allowed 13 earned runs in 15 IP overall. The Cardinals are 0-3 in games he has started while the Nats get Max Scherzer today. Scherzer allowed four solo home runs in his first start and has allowed just five hits and one run in 13 IP since. Juan Soto is out, but the Cards were strategically pitching around him this series before he was hurt. Take the value in Scherzer at home.

After a rough first start, Max Scherzer has been dominant in his last two outings. Carlos Martinez, meanwhile, is 0-3 with a 7.80 ERA after posting a 9.90 ERA last year as a starter. This line should be higher. Look for the Nats to beat the Cards for the eighth time in the past 10 meetings.