L.A. Dodgers @ Tampa Bay

Clayton Kershaw was 6-2 with a 2.16 ERA in the regular season but he is 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA in the postseason. He allowed just one run in six innings in his first start of the World Series in Game 1. Tyler Glasnow was 5-1 with a 4.08 ERA in the regular season and 2-2 with a 6.08 ERA in the playoffs. He pitched just one quality start out of five this postseason and he is coming off allowing six runs in 4.1 IP in Game 1. He has had a problem allowing home runs allowing five in 17.2 postseason innings this season and he can lose his command as shown by his six walks in Game 1. Both bullpens are weary after working stressful outs last night, expect the team whose starter can go the deepest to win.

Clayton Kershaw was 6-2 with a 2.16 ERA in the regular season but he is 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA in the postseason. He allowed just one run in six innings in his first start of the World Series in Game 1. Tyler Glasnow was 5-1 with a 4.08 ERA in the regular season and 2-2 with a 6.08 ERA in the playoffs. He pitched just one quality start out of five this postseason and he is coming off allowing six runs in 4.1 IP in Game 1. He has had a problem allowing home runs allowing five in 17.2 postseason innings this season and he can lose his command as shown by his six walks in Game 1. Both bullpens are weary after working stressful outs last night, expect the team whose starter can go the deepest to win.

Since July of 2019, the Dodgers are 13-0 as the road team when they are a favorite of more than 120, they're coming off a game in which they allowed six-plus runs and it is not a series opener. LA has won these 13 games by an average of 4.38 runs. This performance indicator has been active three times in these playoffs and the Dodgers won those by scores of: 15-3, 7-3 and 6-2. This has been a soft spot for the Rays, as they are 0-9 as the home team and their opponent is seeking immediate revenge for a one-run loss in which it scored at least four runs and its starter has an ERA higher than 2.00. Tampa has lost these nine games by an average of 3.56 runs, and it was an average of minus 147.5 on the money line in these nine losses. Finally, the Rays are 0-7 as home underdogs coming off a game in which they allowed five-plus walks and were out-hit, losing by an average of 3.43 runs per game. We are on the Dodgers.

The Rays are 11-0 OU after allowing six-plus runs and at least one walk as home underdogs. The Dodgers are 7-0 OU when their bullpen allowed multiple runs and it is not a series opener, scoring an average of 7.57 runs over these seven games. Also, LA is 12-0 OU as the road team when it is not the underdog, coming off a game as a favorite in which it scored more runs off the opponent’s bullpen than its opponent’s starter, and it is not a series opener. The Dodgers eclipsed the OU line in this spot by an average of 4.88 runs. We make the Over the play.