I realize the Blue Jays have lost six straight, but my model says they should not be an underdog in this game -- much less this big of an underdog. Seattle's Felix Hernandez (1-4, 6.52 ERA) is making his first start since May 11 and cannot be trusted. My model says Toronto wins this game almost 60 percent of the time, so you're getting solid value with the Jays at plus-money.