Aaron Nola is 11-3 with a 3.56 ERA this season and he is 5-2 with a 2.09 ERA in his last 11 starts. Brian Johnson is 1-1 with a 6.45 ERA this season in 10 appearances and five starts. The Phillies aren’t too good on the road at 26-32 but the Red Sox are 2-5 as the home dog all season. The Phillies are 17-9 when Nola starts, I like the Phillies on the road.

Fenway is a tough spot to pitch for Nola, but Brian Johnson is getting way too much respect in this spot. The park shift and addition of the DH is a big bump to the Philies offense, especially against Brian Johnson. Nola should still pick up his strikeouts against this Red Sox lineup. I have the Philies winning 56 percent of simulations.