My model says that the Braves win this game more than 70 percent of the time, so you're getting great value at this price. Atlanta starter Dallas Keuchel has been terrific at home this season, going 1-1 with a 2.66 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP in three starts. Meanwhile, Trevor Bauer, who is making his Reds debut, is coming off one of his worst starts of the season, giving up seven earned runs on nine hits in 4.1 innings at Kansas City. Take the Braves.

Trevor Bauer is 9-8 with a 3.79 ERA and he will be making his Reds debut. Dallas Keuchel is 3-4 with a 3.86 ERA but he is 1-1 with a 2.66 ERA at home. The Reds lost one of their best right-handed hitters in Yasiel Puig and they have the 14th worst OPS against lefties in the league. Lay the home favorite.