I'll take the White Sox plus money with Lucas Giolito against any opponent. I use median numbers so a bad start here or there will not take me off a hot pitcher. Giolito's median numbers for the seven home starts is five innings, four hits, one earned run, two walks and six strikeouts. The Twins are coming off a tough series against the Yankees, who they can never win a series from, where they lost two of three games. The Twins' Jose Berrios has been the ace of the staff, his road median numbers for 2019 are six innings, six hits, three earned runs, three walks, and five strikeouts. With those pitchers stats the White Sox should be the favorite for the first five innings and the game.

My data sees the Twins beating the White Sox nearly two-thirds of the time in their series opener Thursday, making Minnesota worth the moderate price. My simulations have the Twins winning 64 percent of this matchup against a Chicago club that has lost nine of its past 12. Minnesota is 4-1 in road starts by Jose Berrios against losing teams, while the White Sox are 3-9 in home outings by Lucas Giloito against winning opposition.