Spurs vs. Thunder odds, line: Proven model reveals picks for NBA Western Conference final Game 1 matchup on Monday, May 18

The NBA Western Conference finals get underway when the second-seeded San Antonio Spurs battle the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday night. San Antonio is coming off a 139-109 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday to win their semifinal series 4-2, while Oklahoma City downed the Los Angeles Lakers 115-110 on May 11 to sweep their series. The Spurs (62-20), who won the Southwest Division, are looking to reach the NBA Finals for the first time since 2013-14. The Thunder (64-18), who won the Northwest Division, are looking to win back-to-back NBA championships.

Tip-off from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. The Spurs lead the all-time postseason series 19-15, and won the regular-season series 4-1. The Thunder are a 6.5-point favorite in the latest Spurs vs. Thunder odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 219.5. 

Before making any Spurs vs. Thunder picks, you NEED to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons. The model entered the second week of the second round of the 2026 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 26-9 roll (74%) on top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen HUGE returns!

The model has simulated Spurs vs. Thunder 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is going Under on the point total, and it also says one side of the spread hits over 50% of the time!

Who wins Spurs vs. Thunder, and which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? ... Join SportsLine right now to find out which side of the spread you should be all over, all from the model on a 26-9 roll on top-rated NBA picks!