SportsLine MLB projections: Mets not hurt that badly losing Noah Syndergaard
If there's a 2020 MLB season, the New York Mets will not have Noah Syndergaard pitching in it as he will have Tommy John surgery.
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There obviously have been no Major League Baseball games that have counted yet this year, but the New York Mets just got terrible news Tuesday regardless for the 2020 campaign – if there is one – with projected No. 2 starter Noah Syndergaard being diagnosed with a torn UCL in his right (pitching) elbow that will require season-ending Tommy John surgery.
Earlier in March, William Hill sportsbook had opened many MLB futures markets – most are down currently with the season suspended due to the coronavirus -- and on the National League Cy Young Award prop, Syndergaard was +2000 (20/1) to win it. Teammate Jacob deGrom was the +300 favorite to win a third straight NL Cy Young.
While deGrom clearly has become the better pitcher, Syndergaard has potentially the nastiest stuff in the majors – the 6-foot-6, 240-pounder just can't always control it. Last year, he threw a career-high 197.2 innings with 202 strikeouts but a mediocre 4.28 ERA (career high) and 10-8 record. "Thor" walked 50. He's annually among baseball's hardest throwers.
New York's rotation now looks like deGrom, Marcus Stroman, Steven Matz and new additions Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha. The Mets are +250 to win the NL East Division at William Hill and +850 to win the pennant.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulated the loss of Syndergaard over a 162-game season because there's no set number to use this year – but there will not be 162 games. The Model had the Mets dropping from 83.7 wins to 82.9 losing Syndergaard and from a 35.4 percent chance of making the playoffs to 32.3.
Syndergaard has one more year of team control after this one – he likely won't be back pitching for the Mets until next summer now – and then is a free agent.
| METS | WIN | WIN% | DIVISION | PLAYOFF | LCS | WS |
| w/Thor | 83.7 | 51.70% | 17.30% | 35.40% | 4.30% | 1.50% |
| w/o Thor | 82.9 | 51.20% | 15.30% | 32.30% | 3.40% | 1.20% |
| IMPACT | -0.8 | -0.50% | -2.00% | -3.10% | -0.90% | -0.30% |