Pirates vs. Phillies odds, line, prediction: 2026 MLB picks for Thursday, July 2, from proven model

The Philadelphia Phillies look to secure the series win when they battle the Pittsburgh Pirates in the fourth and final game of their National League matchup on Thursday afternoon. Philadelphia earned a 10-6 win on Wednesday night. The Pirates (43-44), who have lost two in a row, are 20-22 on the road this season. The Phillies (49-38), who have won three of five, are 25-20 on their home field in 2026.

First pitch from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia is set for 12:35 p.m. ET. The Phillies have won nine of the last 13 meetings. Philadelphia is a -129 favorite on the money line (risk $129 to win $100) in the latest Pirates vs. Phillies odds, while the over/under, is 10.5. The Over is 5-1 over the Pirates' last six games, while the Over is 3-1 over the Phillies' last four contests.

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The model has simulated Pirates vs. Phillies 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is going Under on the total, and is also says one side of the money line has ALL the value!

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