Marcus Stroman MLB Trade Deadline odds: Pitcher likely making final start at Wrigley Field for Cubs vs. Cardinals Thursday; Jays, Astros, Rays, Giants among suitors

The Chicago Cubs are in a tricky spot at 45-50. Do they add ahead of the Aug. 1 Trade Deadline in a long-shot effort to win the mediocre NL Central – a wild card spot is way out of reach – or do they sell and start focusing on a return to true contention in 2024? Selling is the probable avenue, meaning it's quite likely that Thursday's outing against the Cardinals will be Stroman's final start this year at Wrigley Field in a Cubs uniform. Chicago is a -135 favorite.

The SportsLine Projection Model gives the Cubs at 6.7% shot at the playoffs, which equates to about +1400 on the money line. DraftKings lists the Cubs at +900 with No at -1400. To win the Central, they are +1200.

The Athletic's Sahadev Sharma wrote recently that it was a "near certainty" that right-hander Stroman and outfielder Cody Bellinger will be traded, and other beat writers are saying the same thing. They are two of the Cubs' most valuable players this year but both are set to hit the open market this winter.

Bellinger and the Cubs have a mutual 2024 option, but the former NL MVP has regained his once-lost hitting stroke to the point where he will not exercise that option and be a hot commodity this winter. There's no reason the Cubs can't trade him and then sign him for a second straight offseason.

The 32-year-old Stroman is in his second year with the Cubs and has a player option for 2024 worth $21 million that he's all but sure to decline, as he should get more on the open market. Stroman is 10-6 with a 2.88 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 101 strikeouts in 20 starts and would like to stay on the North Side.

"I am open to it," Stroman said recently of an extension with Chicago. "I just don't think it's going to happen. Like I said, there are zero hard feelings. I have a great relationship with (the Cubs' front office.) I love everything here. I just don't think they are in a position to sign me before the deadline."

Stroman is one of the top ground-ball starting pitchers in MLB (58.4% of balls in play), which is extraordinarily valuable in this HR-centric era. He has surrendered only six long balls in his 118.2 innings. Stroman also has postseason experience from 2015 and '16 with the Blue Jays. They reportedly are very interested in acquiring him – but so is just about every contender. USA Today's Bob Nightengale has reported the Astros have "checked in" with the Cubs on Stroman and Bellinger.

After Sunday's game vs. the Cardinals, the Cubs aren't back at Wrigley Field until July 31. Stroman might still be on the team then and he would be lined up to start that day, but the Cubs may not want to risk pitching him vs. Cincinnati ahead of the deadline the next afternoon.

Stroman has had his issues against the Cardinals, going 1-5 with a 4.96 ERA in nine starts. This year, he's 0-2 with a 4.82 ERA in 9.1 innings with St. Louis batters hitting .300 against him. Stroman pitched well at Wrigley Field in a 3-1 loss to St. Louis on May 8 but was pulled after 3.1 rough innings (8 H, 6 R) against the Cardinals in London.

Paul Goldschmidt hammers him, going 9-for-24 with three homers and two doubles. Stroman is +150 to personally win tonight and -205 to not. He's set at Over/Under 2.5 earned runs.

Via SportsLine oddsmakers: Which team will Marcus Stroman be playing for after the Aug. 1 Trade Deadline?

• Blue Jays +400
• Astros +400
• Giants +500
• Rays +600
• Yankees +800
• Orioles +900
• Dodgers +1000
• Diamondbacks +1200
• Reds +1500
• Red Sox +2000

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