Lakers vs. Thunder odds, line: Proven model reveals picks for NBA Western Conference semifinal Game 1 matchup on Tuesday, May 5

The fourth-seeded Los Angeles Lakers battle the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 1 of their best-of-seven Western Conference semifinal matchup on Tuesday. Los Angeles is coming off a 98-78 win over Houston on Friday to defeat the Rockets in six games, while Oklahoma City completed a four-game sweep of Phoenix, winning 131-122 on April 27. The Lakers (53-29), who won the Pacific Division title, are looking to reach the Western Conference finals for the first time since 2022-23. The Thunder (64-18), who won the Northwest Division, are looking to win back-to-back NBA championships. Lakers guard Luka Doncic (hamstring) remains out.

Tipoff from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. The Lakers lead the all-time postseason series 26-15, but the Thunder have won four of the past five postseason meetings. The Thunder are 15.5-point favorites in the latest Lakers vs. Thunder odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 213.5. 

Before making any Lakers vs. Thunder picks, you NEED to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons. The model entered the second round of the 2026 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 26-9 roll (74%) on top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen HUGE returns!

The model has simulated Lakers vs. Thunder 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is going Under on the point total, and it also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time!

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