The Dallas Mavericks will look to continue their recent mastery over the Los Angeles Lakers when the teams meet in an NBA Western Conference matchup on Christmas Day. The Mavericks (17-16), third in the Southwest Division, have won four of their last five meetings with Los Angeles, including two in a row. The Lakers (13-19), fifth in the Pacific Division, have dropped three straight. Dallas defeated Houston 112-106 on Friday, while the Lakers fell 134-130 to Charlotte.

Sunday's tip off from American Airlines Arena in Dallas is set for 2:30 p.m. ET. The Mavericks are 8.5-point favorites in the latest Lakers vs. Mavericks odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is set at 229.5. Before you make any Lakers vs. Mavericks picks and predictions, you'll want to see what the SportsLine Projection Model is saying.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model enters Week 10 of the 2022-23 NBA season on a stunning 28-12 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $1,400. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

The model knows Dallas is led by point guard Luka Doncic, who went off against the Houston Rockets on Friday night. Doncic scored 50 points, dished out 10 assists and grabbed eight rebounds in the win. Doncic has scored 20 or more points in 37 games spanning the past two seasons, the longest such streak in NBA history. He has scored 20 or more points in 29 games this year and 30 or more 22 times. He now has 16 double-doubles in 2022-23.

The model also knows the Lakers are led by small forward LeBron James, who has scored 30 or more points in each of the last six games. He scored 34 points and dished out eight assists in Friday's loss to the Hornets. James recently passed Michael Jordan for sixth-place on the all-time assists list, and registered his 900th career win Dec. 2 at Milwaukee. He is the only player in league history with 10,000-plus points, 10,000-plus rebounds and 10,000-plus assists.

Now, it has simulated Lakers vs. Mavericks 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under, and it also says one side of the spread hits nearly 70% of the time! You absolutely need to see it before locking in your own picks.

So who wins Lakers vs. Mavericks? And which side of the spread hits in nearly 70% of simulations? Join SportsLine right now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its NBA picks.