For those who don't know me, I'm Preston (@SportsCheetah on Twitter).
SportsLine has asked me to contribute content, and I'm excited. I'll be writing, helping out with videos and podcasts -- and of course making picks.
I studied psychology and Portuguese in college and have a master's degree in sport psychology from the University of Utah. I've always been a pretty big numbers and analytical guy, so when it came to education I wanted to study things that were new to me.
I always planned to get a PhD, then I started having success betting sports. When the opportunity to do it full-time came along, I didn't think twice about it. My experience working with athletes and coaches at multiple levels definitely has benefitted me; I wouldn't trade it for anything.
As some of you are aware, my ties to Utah schools give me an edge in handicapping their games each week. I try to semi-replicate this extreme familiarity on a nationwide level going into a new season, so I write a comprehensive NCAAF Guide each year.
Oddsmakers aren't up-to-date on everything as the season begins and this is the best time to take advantage of mistakes and inefficiencies in the market. You'll see I've put together a great list of season win totals and futures that should turn us a profit by year's end.
We netted over 60 units last season betting futures like UNC at +1300 to win the ACC Coastal, Houston at +825 to win the AAC, San Diego at +700 to win the MWC and Florida at +600 to win the SEC East, to name a few. We hit 69 percent (30-13) on season win totals, including bigger plays on Nevada Under 7 and Ohio Over 5.
To kick things off, I present my Top 25, which has nothing to do with media or coaches' polls. In my opinion these are the nation's 25 best teams. My power numbers are in parentheses.
1. Alabama (94): It's hard to imagine the defending champs being overlooked but here we are. LSU and Tennessee are getting the SEC hype, and frankly I think it's a position Nick Saban finds refreshing. The Crimson Tide lost half their starters from last year's squad, but if there is a school replenishing constantly with elite talent it's Alabama. The Tide are still my highest-rated team and my numbers project 9.96 wins, so a season win total at 9.5 is definitely worth a small play on the Over.
2. Oklahoma (91.5): Oklahoma went into 2014 with lofty expectations after upsetting Alabama in the Sugar Bowl and wound up underwhelming everyone with an 8-5 finish. Last year, with the spotlight focused on TCU and Baylor, the Sooners thrived and won the Big 12 as well as securing a spot in the College Football Playoff. With most pieces returning on both sides of the ball, Bob Stoops and company are favored to win the conference again and reach the playoff again. My numbers project 10.04 wins so with a season win total of 10 there's no value here.
3. LSU (91): I never said the LSU hype isn't warranted. With 17 returning starters and Les Miles believed to be on the hot seat, the Tigers are primed to make a run. Leonard Fournette ran for 1,953 yards and 22 TDs and will contend for the Heisman again. I project the Tigers as favorites in every single game this year. They get 'Bama at home and dodge Tennessee and Georgia out of the SEC East. In all likelihood, the SEC West will be determined when LSU hosts the Tide on Nov. 5, a game I can see going either way. With a season win total at 10 juiced to the Under, my win projection of 9.63 doesn't warrant a play.
4. Clemson (90.5): The Tigers have won 10-plus game in five straight seasons under Dabo Swinney games in 5 consecutive seasons under coach Dabo Swinney, a run that includes two BCS appearances on top of the championship game appearance a year ago. With DeShaun Watson returning for his third season under center, the offense could be as lethal as ever. I project Clemson as a double-digit fave in 10 of its first 12 games, and the Tigers open as touchdown favorites at Auburn in Week 1. Their shot at the playoff likely comes down to the Oct. 29 game at Florida State. I project 10.35 wins for Clemson so with the line at 10 juiced Over, I'd pass.
5. Florida State (90.5): I made two futures bets on potential Heisman winners and Dalvin Cook at +1500 was one of them. He'll run behind the same O-line from last year when he totaled almost 2,000 yards from scrimmage and averaged 7.9 yards per carry. Now that freshman QB Deondre Francois is starting, the Seminoles will be relying on Cook even more heavily. FSU will be favored in each of its games, including the pivotal matchup with Clemson on Oct. 29.
6. Ohio State (89): And here's my other Heisman futures bet: Buckeyes QB JT Barrett at +1600. The job is firmly his, so with the loss of RB Ezekiel Elliott to the NFL, look for Barrett to thrive in Urban Meyer's system as a dual threat. As with Alabama, I was surprised how badly oddsmakers overlooked this Ohio State squad when numbers started popping up this summer. Week 3 against Oklahoma will be a big test, but win or lose Ohio State won't be out of the playoff picture. The Buckeyes could still run the Big Ten table and win the conference championship. At +1100 to win it all, Ohio State definitely holds some value. And thankfully the Michigan love has put a great price on the Buckeyes to win the conference, too.
7. Tennessee (87.5): The hype for the Volunteers is real -- I'm just not sure if they are for real. They bring back 17 starters, including dual-threat senior QB Joshua Dobbs, but the Vols haven't shown the mental fortitude under Butch Jones to make me think they're legitimate contenders yet. I won't be surprised if they win the weaker SEC East, but I don't expect them to make playoff noise come December.
8. Notre Dame (87): This is probably my favorite longish shot at +2000 to win the national title. Remember, the Irish were a play away at Clemson or Stanford from being in last year's College Football Playoff. And that was with freshman QB DeShone Kizer, who took over in Week 2 after Malik Zaire got injured. The Irish have an easier schedule this fall and I expect to see them make another run.
9. Stanford (87): The Cardinal certainly don’t mind all the hype Washington is getting in the Pac-12 North. For that reason alone, there is value to be had on Stanford over 8 wins, but I didn't end up making a futures bet for the division or conference. Stanford's four toughest opponents -- UCLA, Washington, Notre Dame and Oregon -- all come on the road. David Shaw will have the Cardinal playing at a high level again behind 2015 Heisman finalist RB Christian McCaffrey, but I'm not sure we'll see the 12 wins we did a year ago.
10. Michigan (87): No team has received more action to win the national title than the Wolverines. Here in Vegas they are co-favorites with Alabama to take home the trophy. I'm as big of a Jim Harbaugh fan as anybody, but I still think they are a year away. Their schedule sets up nicely early; I peg them as double-digit faves in their first seven games. But visits to Sparty, Iowa and Ohio State toward the end the year will be tough to navigate. If anything, I believe Michigan will be an overvalued and public team. I'll be picking spots to bet against them.
11. Ole Miss (87): Ole Miss has topped the previous year's win total in each season under Hugh Freeze. He has done a fantastic job and with QB Chad Kelly back, we should see more of the same. My numbers project 8-9 wins, so the Rebels probably won't improve on the 10 from a year ago. They face three of my Top 5 teams, including FSU in the season opener in Orlando. None of the three are true road games, however, so if by some miracle Ole Miss ekes out two of those wins, we might see the Rebels in the playoff picture.
12. Baylor (87): What an offseason for the Bears. When spring practice ended, most people would have told you Baylor was a national title contender. Most shops here in Vegas had Baylor around 12/1 to win it all. After the off-field issues and Art Briles' firing, you can get this squad at 85/1. Former Wake Forest coach Jim Grobe takes over with weapons at his disposal, but this isn't a situation I can ultimately bet into.
13. Washington (86): When you look at the 15 returning starters and the fact the Huskies are coached by one of the nation's best, you can understand the hype. Chris Petersen worked wonders at Boise State and has already turned things around in Washington in just two seasons. Even in a rebuilding stage and relying on multiple true freshmen, UW averaged over 30 points each year. I'm not sure if 2016 will be the year they make a legitimate run, but I only project them as underdogs in one game -- at Oregon and with a 49 percent win probability.
14. TCU (85.5): Most people likely expect a dropoff with QB Trevone Boykin graduating, but remember that Texas A&M transfer Kenny Hill takes over. Seeing just three returning starters on offense looks scary. However, Hill has a better arm than Boykin and could make this unit just as potent as in years past. Eight returning defensive starters is nice, and drawing Oklahoma at home makes the Horned Frogs a series threat to win the Big 12.
15. UCLA (85.5): Highly-touted QB Josh Rosen will be relied on much more this year after he played alongside nine returning starters as a freshman. Defensively, the Bruins look as strong as I can remember with nine returning starters plus a few other experienced players who got hurt early last season. The Bruins face a difficult non-conference schedule with games at Texas A&M and BYU. But if they get through unscathed, they're in great shape given they dodge Washington and Oregon out of the North and draw Stanford and USC at home. That could end up being the difference between UCLA losing the South division and making a run at the College Football Playoff.
16. USC (85): 2015 was a crazy year for USC. Offensive coordinator Clay Helton took over midseason and eventually signed a long-term contract. I think it will be a breath of fresh air for the program signing and promoting a guy like Helton from within after failing with big names in the post-Pete Carroll era. But this is a brutal schedule. Not only do the Trojans get their three toughest conference opponents (Stanford, Washington, UCLA) on the road, they also decided it was worthwhile scheduling Alabama and Notre Dame. Even with 10 returning offensive starters and weapons galore for Helton and new QB Max Browne, it could be a rough go.
17. Auburn (83): One thing I drill home in my NCAAF Guide is the value in buying low on teams that got hype the prior season, failed to meet expectations, and seem to be getting overlooked going into the current season (see North Carolina and Iowa in 2014 and 2015). Auburn fits the bill now after being preseason Top 10 each of the last two years and falling extremely short. The Tigers have talent; it's up to Gus Malzahn to make it work. I project 7.63 wins and think there is a ton of upside with this squad so I hit the Over 6.5 season wins when it opened in Vegas.
18. Michigan State (83): Cranking out 11-plus wins in five of the past six seasons is no easy task and Mark Dantonio has managed it without a load of blue-chip talent. The loss of QB Connor Cook will be felt this fall, however, and I only project 8.4 wins for Sparty. Non-conference games at Notre Dame and against BYU make an already difficult Big Ten slate even tougher. If anyone can find a way to win nine-plus games with this schedule after losing an elite QB, it's Dantonio. But I can't find it in me to to put money on it.
19. Louisville (83): QB Lamar Jackson was a revelation as a freshman last season so I understand the hype for a Bobby Petrino team in his third season. Senior RB Brandon Radcliff returns as well, along with eight starters from a defense that ranked 16th last year. I project almost nine wins for Louisville, but it's tough to see the Cards making a real splash when they have Clemson and Florida State in their own division. Ultimately, it's unlucky timing for things to come together for Louisville right now.
20. Oregon (83): The Ducks were really bad offensively when Vernon Adams missed games due to injury last year. Now that Adams has graduated and QB Dakota Prukop is taking over behind an offensive line replacing four starters, it will be tough for Oregon to replicate the numbers of seasons past. Royce Freeman leads a stellar RB unit, but there's inexperience everywhere else. It might seems like a tough season win total to fire Under on, but my numbers project 7.96 wins on a posted total of 8.5.
21. Georgia (82.5): UGA decided to get rid of coach Mark Richt after he won 10-plus games for the school in four of his past five seasons. More and more, teams feel entitled to a national championship and 10-win seasons aren't good enough. Former Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart takes over with a mandate to take the next step. RBs Nick Chubb and Sony Michel form the country's best duo, and Smart will rely on the ground game and his defensive acumen. The total of 8.5 wins is spot on so I stayed away.
22. Florida (82): This Gators team won us a lot of money last season, but one key piece of advice I give people betting futures is don't chase the surprise team from the year before. The time to bet on Florida was in 2015, not 2016. I expect the Gators to be good in Jim McElwain's secpnd season, but with a brutal SEC schedule and brand new QB I really could see them winning half their games. If they won 10 games again, it also wouldn't surprise me. Stay away.
23. Iowa (81.5): It will be interesting to see if Iowa lives up to the hype after overachieving and winning 12 games in 2015. Kirk Ferentz's teams tend to fall short in these types of spots, but the schedule sets up beautifully again for the Hawkeyes. They should be favorites in 10 of their 12 games, with the other two pick-'ems. They also get their biggest division threat, Nebraska, at home in the season finale. Per my numbers, Over 8.5 wins is worth a play.
24. Miami (81.5): The Hurricanes' season win total was one of the biggest movers this summer; it opened at 6.5 and now sits at 8 at nearly every shop. It helps when Phil Steele offers his blessing and picks you to win the ACC Coastal, but it seems to me people are jumping the gun in Mark Richt's first season in Miami. QB Brad Kaaya has been really good, but defensively the 'Canes have plenty of room for improvement after ranking 92nd a year ago. There are too many question marks for me to get involved this season.
25. Houston (80.5): Similar to Florida, the time to buy on the Cougars was last season when they were over 8/1 to win the AAC. A year later, Tom Herman's squad is a huge favorite to repeat at +100. The former Ohio State offensive coordinator did a fantastic job with QB Greg Ward and I expect Ward to have another Heisman-caliber season. Houston's Week 1 game against the Sooners will be telling. I certainly think the Cougars are capable of pulling the upset, and a win would give them the best chance of any non-Power 5 team to make a run at the College Football Playoff.
