Now three weeks into the season, most wide receivers are approaching or already have reached the 100-route mark, and we're getting close to having a trustworthy sample size to draw conclusions from. 350 is the number of routes I typically use as a qualifier if examining a full season's worth of data, but there is a notable dropoff in volatility around the 150-route mark as well. Making dubious speculations based on the initial weeks' worth of data is fun, but the sample size isn't yet large enough to feel any confidence that the data we have will be in any way predictive.

And we're still not yet to the point where we can feel as if the data we have is predictive.

But we're getting closer! Surprisingly stellar usage for players like Cooper Kupp, Mike Williams, and Marquise Brown becomes more and more likely to stick with each passing week. The elevated rates we've seen from budding superstars like DK Metcalf, Justin Jefferson, and D.J. Moore are beginning to look like legitimately trustworthy trends that support the upward trajectory most expected their careers to continue to follow in 2021.

After evaluating the data and sharing What We Learned in Week 3, I'm ready to lay out my rest-of-season rankings at the wide receiver position heading into Week 4. Here's where I'm ranking each WR going forward, given the data we have through three weeks.

Tiered rest of season WR rankings

Tier 1

1. Davante Adams (+1)
2. Tyreek Hill (-1)

Tier 2

3. Justin Jefferson (+2)
4. DK Metcalf (+2)
5. Stefon Diggs (-1)
6. Calvin Ridley (-3)
7. DeAndre Hopkins
8. D.J. Moore (+1)

Notable changes:

A player's targets per route run (TPRR) rate is one of the most predictive and important stats available for evaluating Fantasy wide receivers.

As a 21-year-old rookie, Justin Jefferson ranked 15th among qualified receivers with a 23.8 percent TPRR rate. That is a historically elite rate for a rookie receiver. Through three games in 2021, Jefferson's TPRR rate sits at 24.8 percent, and it has risen each week. Kirk Cousins has targeted Jefferson on over 29 percent of his routes in each of the past two games; Adam Thielen hasn't had a TPRR rate above 24 percent in any of Minnesota's first three games.

And unlike during his rookie season, Jefferson has remained just as involved as Thielen when in the red zone.

If Jefferson had Thielen's four touchdowns, instead of just two of his own, he would rank as the WR3 in Fantasy after three weeks.

Entering 2021, Jefferson ranked as a top-five Fantasy WR for me and was someone I was making sure to not leave my drafts without. If I would have known Minnesota would be as pass-heavy as we've seen, or if I would have had the additional 100 routes worth of data that I now have the also points towards Jefferson being one of the league's premier target hogs and yardage creators, he would have ranked as my WR3. That's where he lands after Week 3, and Jefferson is one of two players who have a realistic chance to vault into Tier 1 with 2-3 more games of data validifying a perceived breakout.

The other receiver with a chance at doing just that: DK Metcalf. Despite ranking just 48th in TPRR rate in 2020, Metcalf finished as the WR7 in Fantasy, which goes to show just how high the ceiling is if he begins to demand anything close to a WR1-type of target volume.

I covered Metcalf's progression as a target hog up until the start of the 2021 season in detail in his Dynasty profile, and what we've seen from him to start Year 3 has followed that progression perfectly. Metcalf has grown tremendously as a player over the past two years, and his development has been obvious to anyone who has been watching. The data backs that notion up; Metcalf has been making continual improvement right before our eyes, even on a month-by-month basis during the 2020 regular season.

Metcalf's TPRR rate wasn't above 17.5 percent in any of the first four games of the season, but he steadily increased it from that point on. He really closed the season strong, too; from Week 12 on, Metcalf's TPRR rate was at 23 percent, and he only dipped below 20 percent in one of those six games.

Through the first three weeks of this season, Metcalf has a 26% TPRR rate. That's huge! Only five players had a TPRR rate that high in 2020. Metcalf's rate was just 20.4 percent.

Metcalf's past two games each have ranked among the five best performances to this point in his career, in terms of TPRR rate. He's only had a TPRR rate above 28 percent six times -- all six have come over the past calendar year.

I have no idea if 26 percent is a sustainable rate for Metcalf; I would guess not. But we have seen nothing but steady improvement from him since he has entered the NFL. Russell Wilson has been locked onto him for the past year -- the only players who have a higher target share and air yardage share during that time are Davante Adams and Justin Jefferson.

Just a quick note on Stefon Diggs -- his move down has nothing to do with his production and everything to with the encouraging signs we've seen from Jefferson and Metcalf. I was hesitant to move them ahead of Diggs -- his underlying metrics are excellent, and I am not the slightest bit concerned about his slow start -- but the theoretical ceiling is higher for Metcalf and Jefferson if their early-season data is to be trusted. 

Which WRs jumped up the rankings with great Week 3 performances? And which WRs are moving out of startable territory? ... Join SportsLine here to see Jacob Gibbs' rest of season Fantasy Football Rankings, all from one of the nation's most accurate experts as graded by FantasyPros!