Computer updates Patriots' projected win total
The SportsLine Projection Model has updated its projected win totals after the first wave of NFL free agency.
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Over the course of the last 20 years, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have built a legacy that will last forever, winning six Super Bowls together for the New England Patriots and winning their division an unbelievable 17 times. However, the two future Hall of Famers will now begin to try to build something for themselves for however much longer their respective careers continue.
After an offseason full of what seemed like posturing, Tom Brady signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at the start of NFL free agency. Coming off a season where is age finally began to show (though it's worth noting he still threw for 4,057 yards and 24 touchdowns with just eight interceptions), the Patriots apparently didn't show much interest in bringing Brady back. Now they'll hope to build around a No. 1-ranked defense from 2019.
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However, that might be a challenge because Brady wasn't the only major loss during free agency. Linebacker Kyle Van Noy signed a four-year, $51 million deal to join the Dolphins while defensive tackle Danny Shelton and linebacker Jamie Collins both joined former defensive coordinator Matt Patricia in Detroit this offseason.
Meanwhile, New England's two most prominent offseason signing thus far have been to sign former Buccaneers defensive tackle Beau Allen to a two-year, $7 million contract and to sign form Chargers safety Adrian Phillips to a two-year, $6 million deal. The Patriots also signed Brian Hoyer to give them an experienced backup who can push former fourth-round pick Jarrett Stidham for the starting job.
With just $2.1 million in cap space remaining and over $9.0 million in scheduled commitments for the 2020 NFL Draft, the Patriots would have to do some heavy cap restructuring to afford any more significant signings this offseason and would have to move serious money out to make any waves via trade. Luckily, they do have 12 picks in the upcoming draft to try to fill some of the holes created by a pretty decimating free agency.
But as much trust as you have to have in New England's talent evaluators given their history of success, it's hard to see a bunch of rookies and backups masking the loss of the greatest quarterback of all-time and three proven defenders. But if Belichick can pull of another AFC East crown and have New England competing for a title in the wake of all that, it only further enhances his legacy as the greatest coach in NFL history.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulated the 2020 NFL schedule 10,000 times and the Patriots win an average of 9.0 games in those simulations and make the postseason 63.5 percent of the time while winning the AFC East 36.9 percent of the time. That is a massive drop from the 10.9 projected wins the model predicted prior to the start of free agency. Meanwhile, William Hill Sportsbook currently lists the Patriots at 20-1 to win the 2021 Super Bowl, which is tied for ninth-best odds in the NFL.
Written by Ryan Wooden
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