Computer updates Packers' projected win total
The SportsLine Projection Model has updated its projected win totals after the first wave of NFL free agency.
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The Green Bay Packers were one of the bigger surprises in the NFL during Matt LaFleur's first season as head coach. With Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense taking care of the football and the Packers making significant improvements defensively via the draft and free agency, the Packers went from six wins in 2018 to 13-3 in 2019 on their way to an NFC North title and an NFC Championship Game appearance.
And even though the Packers ranked 18th in both total offense and total defense and were out-gained on the season, they ranked 15th in scoring and ninth in scoring defense. Now as they enter the 2020 season, the Packers will look to build off last season's success and put together a championship run while they still can as Rodgers enters his age-37 season.
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The Packers did lose Blake Martinez, Bryan Bulaga and Jimmy Graham (among others) during free agency, but they hope to have already found replacements for Martinez and Bulaga by signing former Browns inside linebacker Christian Kirksey to a two-year, $13 million contract and signing former Lions right tackle Ricky Wagner to a two-year, $11 deal.
With just under $12.8 million in estimated salary cap space remaining, the Packers didn't really have many other options than to let Martinez and Bulaga walk and to find cheap replacements. Now they'll look to the 2020 NFL Draft to address remaining roster issues and will hope that everybody will be more comfortable entering their second season in the same system on both sides of the ball.
Adding another playmaker to compliment Rodgers, Davante Adams and Aaron Jones offensively should certainly be a priority with one of the deepest wide receiver classes in history at their disposal. And a glut of middle-round options at tight end could probably alleviate losing Graham to a division rival (Bears). And you can probably expect defensive line to also be a focus after the Packers ranked 23rd against the run last season.
Inevitably, the Packers should be in the mix again next year in what should be a competitive NFC North, but they may be looking at a step back from the 13-3 season they enjoyed last season given all the good fortune they had on their way to the division title. The SportsLine Projection Model simulated the 2020 NFL schedule 10,000 times and predicts that the Packers win 8.4 games on average, winning the division 24.9 percent of the time and making the NFL Playoffs 39.3 percent of the time.
That's a slight drop from the 8.4 projected wins the model predicted prior to the start of free agency. Meanwhile, William Hill Sportsbook currently lists the Packers at 18-1 to win the 2021 Super Bowl, which are the ninth-best odds in the NFL.
Written by Ryan Wooden
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