Welcome to short-week football. It's here, for the first time in 2022. In all its glory.

Thursday night games are generally favorable to the home team, for obvious reasons. And this particular home team, the Kansas City Chiefs, has been slept on in the futures market and early-season lines, in my humble opinion. Not enough respect is being put on the names of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. Except, well, for those who backed them in Week 1, in which they came through glowingly in a thorough unmasking of an overvalued Arizona squad.

But what do we make of a tough divisional challenge with the Chargers so soon in the new campaign. Well, you still have to worry about top Chargers corner J.C. Jackson playing and/or making an impact, and if you watched the Raiders move the ball up and down the field on L.A. last week, you have to wonder if their defense is really that much improved right now, save for the individual impact Khalil Mack makes to the pass rush. I tend to think these AFC West games will be shootouts by and large; it took five sacks and three Derek Carr picks to prevent the Raiders from scoring into the 30s in Week 1, and check out some of these troubling stats:

The Raiders had ten drive-opening first-down plays; Carr dropped back on nine of them (one run), and was sacked once. Carr went 8-for-8 in those passes, for 80 yards, with six of them going to best bud Davonte Adams in his Raiders' debut. Everyone knew where the ball was going, and despite a suspect offensive line, the Chargers couldn't stop it. The Raiders averaged 7.33 yards per first down play and 10.8 net yards per first-down attempt. Which begs the question: what the heck will Reid and Mahomes do to them?

I am buying that the KC defense is much improved after an offseason of work on it, but the Chargers did drop 28 and 24 points on them last year in earning a split of the two games. Also, the Chargers run game was a nothing-burger and that gives me some pause about their ability to control the ball this week and keep Mahomes off the field. It makes me lean more into the idea this could be a high-scoring game with the Chargers having to chuck it all over the place to keep up.

One other note on the player prop front – these two passing attacks were among the most balanced in the league last week. In a weekend in which force-feeding new pass-catchers was the rule, Mahomes attempted four passes or more to five players and Justin Herbert had seven teammates with four targets or more and nine with between two to four catches. Good luck figuring out where it's going and which receivers to back.

In general, I have some definite leans in this game, but this isn't a primo play for me.

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Spread: Chiefs -3.5

Kansas City played like a unit out to make a statement last week. This team will take the Chargers seriously after playing one-score games with them a year ago. As we just noted, good luck finding clues on where the ball is going. Mahomes seems to be enjoying this by-committee approach with top wideout Tyreek Hill now in Miami.

Total: Over 54.5

I thought he Raiders-Chargers game was going way over last week. Turnovers were the difference. These teams played 30-24 and 34-28 games last year. I'm still skeptical that the Chargers can get enough stops to keep the Chiefs under 34 points again. You have to worry about defenses getting gassed this time of year, too. And against these offenses, look out.

Player Props

Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 TDs (-106)

I loved this a week ago, at plus money, and love it again here -- though with a little less value. Mahomes is a beast in the red zone, where precision and improvisation matter so much. He threw six touchdowns in two games against the Chargers last year.

Justin Herbert Over 25.5 completions (-113)

If this games goes as I believe it will, the Chiefs will concede underneath passes, screens and running back targets to eliminate the big play. Herbert is so accurate and the Chargers might need to adopt a horizontal passing game from the get-go, anyway, if the run game is still caput.

Travis Kelce Over 77.5 receiving yards (-106)

Darren Waller did mostly whatever he wanted last week against the Chargers; the problem was Carr didn't look his way enough. The Chargers allowed 1170 yards to TEs last year (32nd) with 13 TDs (31st) on 117 receptions (31st) and averaged 8.6 yards per attempt (28th). Kelce is the fulcrum of the Kansas City passing game, now more so than ever with Hill gone. I have to ride this wave.

Same-Game Parlay (+400) 

• Mahomes over 2.5 TDs 
• Herbert over 25.5 completions
• Kelce anytime TD

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