Advanced model updates Patriots' projected win total
The SportsLine Projection Model has updated its projected win totals after the 2020 NFL Draft.
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After 20 years with the New England Patriots, the Tom Brady era is over. However, his career in New England isn't quite coming to an end as many would have expected, with an immediate retirement ceremony with his iconic No. 12 jersey being hoisted to the heavens at Gillette Stadium. Instead, Brady signed with the Buccaneers in free agency and New England now moves on with Jarrett Stidham as the intended starter.
Without much salary cap space to work with, the Patriots were quiet in free agency. Defensive tackle Beau Allen and safety Adrian Phillips were the only two new multi-year signings as New England committed a combined $13 million to the pair for two years of service each. However, the Patriots made 10 selections at the 2020 NFL Draft to help round out their roster.
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Despite some speculation that New England might be looking to move up to select a quarterback, it instead showed confidence in Stidham moving forward by sending their No. 23 overall pick to the Chargers for the 37th overall pick and the 71st overall pick. The Patriots would select Lenoir-Rhyne safety Kyle Dugger with the 37th pick, whose incredible athleticism and productivity in Division II made him a bonafide prospect.
The Patriots added a pair of edge rushers with their next two picks, selecting Michigan's Josh Uche and Alabama's Anfernee Jennings. They also drafted two tight ends in the third round in an effort to rebuild their tight end rotation by taking Devin Asiasi from UCLA and Dalton Keene from Virginia Tech. With the club electing to move on from Stephen Gostkowski in the offseason, the Patriots also sprang early for Marshall placekicker Justin Rohrwasser in the fifth round and then made offensive line depth a priority in the late rounds.
Ultimately, this was already a roster that appeared to be on the decline in 2019 and the losses of Brady, Kyle Van Noy, Jaime Collins and Danny Shelton are going to be tough to cover up. You certainly have to trust Bill Belichick as a talent evaluator, but if he's wrong about Jarrett Stidham, it could put the franchise into full rebuild mode next offseason. But what exactly will the Patriots look like in 2020?
The SportsLine Projection Model predicts that the Patriots win an average of 7.9 games in the computer's 10,000 simulations of the 2020 NFL season, down from 9.0 projected wins prior to the 2020 NFL Draft. New England wins the division 29.0 percent of the time and makes the playoffs 44.2 percent of the time. The Patriots are also currently 20-1 to win Super Bowl 55 according to William Hill, which is tied for 10th-best odds in the NFL.
Written by Ryan Wooden
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