Advanced model updates Lions' projected win total
The SportsLine Projection Model has updated its projected win totals after the 2020 NFL Draft.
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With former Patriots director of pro scouting Bob Quinn installed as the general manager and former Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia as the head coach, it's pretty clear that the Detroit Lions are trying to follow the model set forth in New England as it looks to remake a franchise that has been largely irrelevant since the late 1950s. However, with Patricia going from 6-10 in 2018 to 3-12-1 in 2019, patience is already wearing thin again in Detroit.
Entering the 2020 NFL offseason, Detroit made protecting Matthew Stafford and overhauling their defense top priorities and it's easy to see why. The Lions didn't win a game without Stafford in 2019 and the defense ranked 31st in yards allowed. So Detroit spent big money on guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai, linebacker Jamie Collins and cornerback Desmond Trufant, while also adding Chase Daniel as insurance policy against Stafford after David Blough and Jeff Driskel struggled in 2019.
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At the 2020 NFL Draft, after attempting to trade back from No. 3 to add more picks and address more needs, the Lions wound up staying put and made the prudent decision to take Ohio State cornerback Jeff Okudah. In the second round, they landed Georgia running back D'Andre Swift to give Stafford a versatile backfield mate who should be able to make a significant immediate contribution.
In the third round, the Lions added a pair of potential contributors in Notre Dame edge rusher Julian Okwara and Ohio State guard Jonah Jackson. On Day Three, the Lions made five more picks and landed a couple players with upside like Wisconsin wide receiver Quintez Cephus and Utah defensive tackle John Pensini.
Now the challenge is getting these guys up to speed in an unusual setting with training facilities shut down by the coronavirus pandemic. Patricia and his Lions need to show some pretty marked improvement if he's going to be back for a fourth season and they've got the misfortune of battling in a tough division where the three other teams have all made the playoffs in the last two seasons and finished at .500 or better in 2019.
The SportsLine Projection Model predicts that the Lions win an average of 7.3 games in the computer's 10,000 simulations of the 2020 NFL season, up from 7.2 projected wins prior to the 2020 NFL Draft. Detroit wins the division 11.8 percent of the time and makes the playoffs 27.2 percent of the time. The Lions are also currently 100-1 to Win Super Bowl 55 according to William Hill, which is tied for fifth-worst odds in the NFL.
Written by Ryan Wooden
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