2021 Peach Bowl odds, picks: Michigan State vs. Pitt selections from advanced computer model for Thursday's bowl game

Teams that enjoyed unexpected resurgent seasons collide when the No. 11 Michigan State Spartans and the No. 13 Pitt Panthers square off in the 2021 Peach Bowl on Thursday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The Spartans (10-2), who won just two games last season, already have completed the biggest turnaround in school history. Meanwhile the Panthers (11-2) are ending one of the best seasons in program history, one that includes the ACC championship, Pitt's first outright conference title ever. 

Both teams, however, will be missing a key piece with Pitt quarterback Kenny Pickett and Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker III opting out of this game to focus on NFL Draft prep.

Kickoff is 7 p.m. ET. The Spartans are 3.5-point favorites in the latest Michigan State vs. Pitt odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the Over/Under for total points scored is 55.5. (See the latest college football lines for all of this week's games on our college football odds page.)

Before you make any Pitt vs. Michigan State picks or Peach Bowl predictions, see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,600 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters the third week of the 2021-22 college football bowl season on a 43-30 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen HUGE returns.

The model knows that Michigan State has a dynamic multipurpose threat in receiver and punt/kick returner Jayden Reed. A 6-foot junior from Naperville, Ill., Reed ranks second in the Big Ten in all-purpose yards (130.8 per game) and leads the team with 53 catches for 946 yards (17.9 average) and eight touchdowns. For his efforts this season he was named first-team all-Big Ten and one of five finalists for the Paul Hornung Award (nation's most versatile player).

The model also knows that Pitt has the country's top receiver from the season in Jordan Addison. A first-team all-America selection and the winner of the Biletnikoff Award, Addison led the country in receiving touchdowns (17) and ranked fifth in receiving yards per game (113.8) this year. He also finished 13th in the nation in receptions per game (7.2).

Now the model has simulated Michigan State vs. Pitt and the Peach Bowl 10,000 times, and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under the total, and it says one side of the spread covers almost 60 percent of the time. You absolutely need to see it before locking in your own picks.

Who wins the Peach Bowl between Pitt and Michigan State? And which side of the spread covers almost 60 percent of the time? ... Join SportsLine right now to see which side of the Michigan State vs. Pitt spread you need to jump on Thursday, all from the computer model that has crushed its college football picks!