The Rockets, led by head coach Jason Candle, are strong contenders to win the MAC. With 16 returning starters from its nine-win season and a victory in the Boca Raton Bowl, Toledo is ranked 14th in the nation in returning production. Its secondary is one of the best in the Group of Five. Quarterback Dequan Finn, who had a successful 2022 campaign as both a passer and runner, is returning. Illinois has lost significant production and will have to start sophomore QB Luke Altmyer, who had a low QBR of 50.7 on only 54 attempts. Additionally, Altmyer gained just three yards on 25 carries. This is an excellent spot to back the road underdog.

Toledo has eight starters back from a top-25 defense last season that won the MAC championship. Illinois had the No. 1 ranked scoring defense in the country, giving up only 12.4 points per game in 2022. I expect this game to be a slugfest and have a hard time seeing Toledo scoring 20, much less Illinois scoring 30. Taking the under seems like the safest bet.