A slight rise in the total, combined with heavy rain in the forecast and the likelihood of Stanford protecting returning quarterback K.J. Costello all add up to a lower-scoring game than projected. Costello, concussed in the opener, is back, and David Shaw is a run-oriented coach anyway. Another factor is stellar offensive tackle Walker Little’s season-ending injury, which has contributed to the team’s offensive ranking of 93rd. Shaw will be disinclined to expose Costello in the pocket. UCF has allowed just 14 points, tied for fifth fewest in the country for teams that have played twice.

The Knights haven't settled on any of their three quarterbacks, and are now playing a defensive backfield that is more talented than any other one they'll face all season -- last weekend vs. USC not withstanding. Forget about the status of Cardinal quarterback KJ Costello, because Davis Mills will be fine. Consider Stanford and the moneyline, but definitely take those points.