This spread has flipped nearly six points since the opening line of Cowboys -3, and they are now the clear value side Saturday. Boise State needs a signature win for its resume, and no doubt this is a prime opportunity and an intriguing matchup. But OSU's Mike Gundy is one of the better big-game coaches in the country, and his top-rated offense should have some success against Boise's solid defense. Moreover, the Broncos have just three wins in 17 road games against Power 5 opponents.

The Broncos do a lot of things well, which is why they've had a ton of success. Cowboys coach Mike Gundy's offense can legitimately score from anywhere on the field. This line is mainly is due to the Broncos' defense and propensity to play excellent on third down. Ball control is going to be key, so you may end up seeing Oklahoma State take some of the air out of the ball. I think you'll see Cowboys QB Taylor Cornelius hold steady and get the victory Saturday.