My simulations say the wrong team is favored here. UT-Arlington is prone to committing fouls, ranking 289th in the country in fouls per game (18.4). That bodes well against a Little Rock squad that's a good free throw shooting team (73.4 percent). In a close game with the Trojans at home, I think that'll be the difference. My model says Little Rock covers almost 70 percent of the time and wins by five, so you're getting strong value at this number.