Late play on the Jaguars, who most models had about 10 points better regardless. Now I'm biting because Southern Miss guard Tae Hardy is out -- and, hey, I didn't even see that nemesis Justin Perri also picked USA! I kid, Justin is my Carlton Banks. Hardy, a senior, averages 13.7 points (second on team) on 50.8 percent shooting. The Golden Eagles have been spanked in their two true road games and are 3-10 ATS in their past 13 as dogs.

This is a bad Southern Miss team that really should be bigger underdogs here. It is also South Alabama's home opener, and they've managed to cover in all but their first match this year. I'm just not sure why this isn't bigger, as there's a good chance South Alabama runs away with this by a double-digit margin. My numbers have this at a 9.5-point spread, so you're getting good value with the home favorite.