In 65 percent of simulations, 2-point underdog UAB beats Western Kentucky straight-up. The Hilltoppers have been effective against the spread beating lower-tier Conference USA competition, but against tougher foes, such as Middle Tennessee State, they struggle. In its last outing against the Blue Raiders, Western Kentucky (+4.5) lost by 18. The Blazers are 13-3 outright at home and desperately need a win if they want to keep any hope alive of getting into the big dance. Take the small line.