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    Tue, Jun 1312:30 am UTCBall Arena
    Track OnCBS Sports
    Miami
    Heat
    MIA
    Last 5 ATS
    W/L14-11
    ATS16-9
    O/U13-11-1
    FINAL SCORE
    89
    -
    94
    Denver
    Nuggets
    DEN
    Last 5 ATS
    W/L16-4
    ATS12-8
    O/U11-9-0
    SPREAD
    MONEYLINE
    OVER/UNDER
    Last 5 ATS
    14-11
    Win /Loss
    16-4
    16-9
    Spread
    12-8
    13-11-1
    Over / Under
    11-9-0
    Key Injuries
    Key Injuries
    Avatar
    SF
    Avatar
    SG
    Avatar
    PG
    Key Injuries
    Avatar
    PF
    Avatar
    SF
    SPREAD
    MONEYLINE
    OVER/UNDER

    Simulation Picks

    SPREAD
    MIA @ DEN
    Subscribers Only

    Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks

    MONEYLINE
    MIA @ DEN
    Subscribers Only

    Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks

    OVER / UNDER
    MIA @ DEN
    Subscribers Only

    Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks

    0%
    PUBLIC
    0%
    MONEY
    0%
    PUBLIC
    0%
    MONEY
    Over0%
    PUBLIC
    Under0%
    Over
    MONEY
    Under

    Expert Picks

    Over / UnderUNDER 210 -110
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +400
    4-0 in Last 4 NBA O/U Picks
    +295
    4-1 in Last 5 NBA Picks
    +500
    5-0 in Last 5 MIA O/U Picks
    +133
    4-2 in Last 6 MIA Picks
    Kenny's Analysis:

    The Nuggets defense has been a big surprise, holding Miami to 93, 111, 94 and 95 points. The Miami defense has been good but not great holding Denver to 104, 108, 109 and 108. The pace for the first four games has been 91, 87, 91 and 89. As expected the Heat do not want to get into an uptempo game with the Nuggets. We have a slow pace, and the longer the series goes the defense has a bigger advantage each game. My model has this total at 203.5. Under is the top play.

    Pick Made: Jun 12, 8:55 pm UTC
    PropNikola Jokic OVER 1.5 Total 3pt FieldGoals +126
    LOSS
    Unit1.0
    +464
    5-2 in Last 7 NBA Picks
    +464
    5-2 in Last 7 NBA Props Picks
    Allan's Analysis:

    Tonight could be the final time we get to ride Nikola Jokic Over 1.5 threes and if so salute, we've had a lot of fun. For anyone new, here's how it works. The number is always set at 1.5 and always plus money. Jokic has hit this in 11 of his 19 games this postseason so the profit has been excellent by trusting the process and if the Nuggets are to win tonight let's finish 12 of 20 for a strong margin and the friends we've made along the way. Best of luck tonight it's been a great run with you all!

    Pick Made: Jun 12, 8:50 pm UTC
    Prop1st Half Miami +5 -110
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +465
    7-2-1 in Last 10 NBA Picks
    +600
    6-0-1 in Last 7 MIA Picks
    +165
    4-2 in Last 6 NBA Props Picks
    Mike's Analysis:

    I'm projecting a competitive start from the Heat in this elimination game. The Nuggets are clearly the better team, but Jimmy Butler is unlikely to go without a fight in this spot. At this point much of this comes down to the ability to make perimeter shots. The good news for Miami is the shot selection hasn't been the issue as ShotQuality suggests they're getting good looks. I also think we could see a slower start from the Nuggets with all the anticipation of closing out this series. Winning outright is certainly an uphill battle, but I'm confident Spoelstra will keep this one interesting early.

    Pick Made: Jun 12, 8:40 pm UTC
    PropJamal Murray YES Double Double +146
    LOSS
    Unit1.0
    +500
    6-1 in Last 7 NBA Picks
    +601
    13-6 in Last 19 NBA Props Picks
    Eric's Analysis:

    I would be shocked if Denver loses this game tonight, but if they do, it's likely because Jamal Murray has an off game. Murray has posted at least 10 assists in each game this series and he's posted double-digit rebounds twice in the last seven playoff games. We know the Nuggets point guard will get his points but I'm betting on 10+ assists once again and therefore hitting this prop.

    Pick Made: Jun 12, 8:01 pm UTC
    PropCaleb Martin OVER 9.5 Total Points -117
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    Zack's Analysis:

    Caleb Martin has not had the same impact in the NBA Finals that he has had over the course of the post-season. In fact, he is only averaging 6.8 points per game. A positive sign is that he has played higher minutes in both games three and four, and his shot attempts have increased significantly. Look for Martin to break through tonight in a crucial game five. Play his over.

    Pick Made: Jun 12, 7:52 pm UTC
    PropKentavious Caldwell-Pope OVER 7.5 Total Points -119
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    Zack's Analysis:

    An unsung player for the Denver Nuggets likely winning an NBA title has been Kentavious Caldwell Pope. His team first mentality has put him in line for a quiet series offensively. He has taken just five shots or less in three straight games. On a discount for his prop look for Pope to make the most of his minimal shot attempts. Take his over.

    Pick Made: Jun 12, 7:50 pm UTC
    PropJamal Murray OVER 8.5 Total Assists -104
    LOSS
    Unit1.0
    +277
    11-7 in Last 18 NBA Picks
    +77
    9-7 in Last 16 NBA Props Picks
    Jason's Analysis:

    Every game in the finals Jamal Murray has had at least 10 assists. The Miami Heat seem to be alright with allowing Nikola Jokic score and Murray to assist instead of the other way around. I am betting Murray's assist over until I see the Heat change their strategy.

    Pick Made: Jun 12, 6:49 pm UTC
    Prop1st Half Miami +5 -110
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +167
    3-1 in Last 4 NBA Picks
    +204
    15-10 in Last 25 NBA Props Picks
    Erik's Analysis:

    I'll be very surprised if Miami mails this one in and allows Game 5 to be a coronation for the Nuggets. This is a prideful and well-coached group that should give a supreme effort out of the gate. Getting essentially 2+ possessions on the line is attractive. Moreover, if the Heat shoot reasonably well from 3-point range, which I project them to do, then it should be a very competitive first half.

    Pick Made: Jun 12, 6:12 pm UTC
    Point SpreadDenver -9 -110
    LOSS
    Unit1.0
    +130
    5-3 in Last 8 NBA Picks
    +140
    8-6-1 in Last 15 DEN Picks
    Micah's Analysis:

    The Nuggets have won and covered nine of their last 10 against the Heat and I attribute most of that edge to better shooting and not turning the ball over. Just six Nuggets turnovers in Game 4. You have to play almost perfectly to beat the Nuggets, especially at home, and the Heat after an amazing playoff run haven’t stepped up and matched them in this series. They can’t stop Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Aaron Gordon, so why now in Denver? I laid the number with the Nuggets.

    Pick Made: Jun 12, 4:38 pm UTC
    Point SpreadMiami +9 -110
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +690
    8-1 in Last 9 NBA ATS Picks
    +456
    10-5 in Last 15 NBA Picks
    +240
    8-5-1 in Last 14 MIA ATS Picks
    +75
    3-2 in Last 5 MIA Picks
    Tim's Analysis:

    True story: I believed Miami had a strong chance in this series. So far, they have gone past the 100-point plateau only one time this series. They did prove they can win in Denver by handing the Nuggets their only home loss this postseason. My thinking is everyone believes the series ends tonight, so there will be heavy public money on Denver, so let’s take all these points and hope the Heat make 15 threes.

    Pick Made: Jun 12, 4:03 pm UTC
    Over / UnderUNDER 209.5 -110
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +1249
    16-3 in Last 19 NBA Picks
    +80
    3-2 in Last 5 NBA O/U Picks
    Mike's Analysis:

    The Heat are struggling to find someone to help support Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. Max Strus has shot 16.1 percent from the field in the series and Caleb Martin doesn’t look anything like the player that dominated the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. Those two struggling has contributed to the Heat scoring 95 points or fewer in three of the four games. I think the Heat are going to have a hard time cracking 100 points again, so despite the total continuing to fall, I like the under.

    Pick Made: Jun 12, 3:02 pm UTC
    PropKentavious Caldwell-Pope OVER 2.5 Total Rebounds -151
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +1249
    16-3 in Last 19 NBA Picks
    +1245
    28-13 in Last 41 NBA Props Picks
    Mike's Analysis:

    While he doesn’t get a ton of scoring opportunities, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has played a key role for the Nuggets. He is a versatile defender and his ability to hit three-pointers helps with their floor spacing. With him averaging 34 minutes per game in this series, he has posted at least three rebounds in each game. Going back even further, Caldwell-Pope has at least three rebounds in nine of his last 10 games. Expect him to play a lot as the Nuggets look to close things out, giving him a good chance to reach the over on this modest number.

    Pick Made: Jun 12, 2:47 pm UTC
    PropCaleb Martin OVER 14.5 Total Points + Rebounds -131
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +1303.5
    71-46 in Last 117 NBA Picks
    +1368.5
    70-45 in Last 115 NBA Props Picks
    Alex's Analysis:

    Caleb Martin has largely made a huge impact for the Heat in the postseason and was arguably their best player in the Eastern Conference Finals against Boston. He really struggled in the first two games of the finals and it appeared his minutes and spot in the rotation were at risk. However he has performed very well off the bench in back to back games and played over 30 minutes in each game. I think he will continue to make a big impact for the Heat who are playing with their backs against the wall.

    Pick Made: Jun 12, 2:41 pm UTC
    PropKyle Lowry OVER 4.5 Total Assists -111
    LOSS
    Unit1.0
    +1249
    16-3 in Last 19 NBA Picks
    +1245
    28-13 in Last 41 NBA Props Picks
    Mike's Analysis:

    Gabe Vincent has battled foul trouble and poor shooting the last two games. That contributed to Kyle Lowry playing at least 29 minutes and having at least five assists in both games. For the series, Lowry has dished out at least five assists in three of the four games. With the Heat’s season on the line, Lowry could again be looking at additional minutes, leaving him with a favorable opportunity to reach this over.

    Pick Made: Jun 12, 2:36 pm UTC
    Over / UnderOVER 209.5 -110
    LOSS
    Unit1.0
    +390
    6-2 in Last 8 NBA Picks
    Mackenzie's Analysis:

    This has everything to do with the fourth quarter. With each Denver win this series, we have seen the total go under. They've had consistent control throughout those games and had the flexibility to take their foot off the gas in the third or fourth quarter. With an NBA title on the line, I don't see Michael Malone taking any chances. I expect the Nuggets to play hard throughout the fourth quarter, no matter the lead. And at the chance it is a tight game with Miami, that is all the more reason they will be playing hard. Our simulation makes this total 217. While we may not hit that number, I feel confident that either game script will allow us to hit 210.

    Pick Made: Jun 12, 2:09 pm UTC
    PropMichael Porter Jr. OVER 16.5 Total Points + Assists + Rebounds -127
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +1303.5
    71-46 in Last 117 NBA Picks
    +1368.5
    70-45 in Last 115 NBA Props Picks
    Alex's Analysis:

    It's been a disappointing finals for Michael Porter Jr. who came into the series averaging 14.6 PPG to go along with 8 rebounds and 1.8 APG. Both Porter's playing time and numbers have plummeted and fortunately for MPJ the Nuggets have still been able to take care of business versus the Heat. Porter had eclipsed this line in 12 of 15 playoff games prior to the finals while averaging over 23 PRA so we are getting a hefty discount on this combo line. I believe his struggles are largely mental rather than Miami trying to take him away. Considering the friendly number, Denver being up 3-1, and going back home there will be a lot less pressure on him to perform.

    Pick Made: Jun 12, 1:39 pm UTC
    PropCaleb Martin OVER 10.5 Total Points -111
    LOSS
    Unit1.0
    +279
    5-2 in Last 7 NBA Picks
    Sia's Analysis:

    The Heat know that they can't simply lean on Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo and timely shooting to beat the Denver Nuggets. Other consistent scorers will need to emerge if Game 5 is going to be competitive and Caleb Martin feels like the most likely to jump out of the pack. Martin dealt with flu-like symptoms for the first two games of this series which limited his minutes, but he's now back up to 30+ minutes and he's getting enough shooting volume to tackle this points prop.

    Pick Made: Jun 12, 4:22 am UTC
    PropGabe Vincent OVER 9.5 Total Points -129
    LOSS
    Unit1.0
    Larry's Analysis:

    Heat point guard Gabe Vincent had a terrible two games in Miami, shooting 3 of 16 and scoring a total of nine points. He's still averaging 13 points for the entire postseason, and he should bounce back with at least 10 points in Game 5. In the first two games in Denver, Vincent went off for 19 and 23 points. That followed an Eastern Conference Finals in which Vincent averaged 15.8 points. We're getting a discount on his points prop now.

    Pick Made: Jun 11, 12:47 pm UTC
    Point SpreadMiami +9 -110
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +318
    12-8 in Last 20 NBA ATS Picks
    +602
    17-10-2 in Last 29 MIA Picks
    +402
    15-10-2 in Last 27 MIA ATS Picks
    Larry's Analysis:

    Everyone knows the series is over; the Nuggets are the bigger, better team. With the pressure off, I expect the Heat to have their second strong shooting game from 3-point range, enabling them to cover this massive spread. Over 22 playoff games, Miami has hit 38.6 percent from deep despite going cold in three of four Finals games. The Heat have acquitted themselves well in Denver, nearly covering Game 1 and winning Game 2. Take the points.

    Pick Made: Jun 11, 3:32 am UTC

    Team Injuries

    Miami Heat
    Wednesday, Nov 29, 2023
    Avatar
    SF
    Jimmy Butler
    AnkleQuestionable
    Tuesday, Nov 28, 2023
    Avatar
    PG
    Tyler Herro
    AnkleOut
    Friday, Nov 24, 2023
    Avatar
    SG
    Dru Smith
    KneeOut
    Friday, Nov 17, 2023
    Avatar
    PG
    R.J. Hampton
    KneeOut
    Denver Nuggets
    Thursday, Nov 30, 2023
    Avatar
    PF
    Aaron Gordon
    HeelQuestionable
    Sunday, Nov 19, 2023
    Avatar
    SF
    Vlatko Cancar
    KneeOut