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    Sat, Jun 1012:30 am UTCKaseya Center
    Track OnCBS Sports
    Denver
    Nuggets
    DEN
    Last 5 ATS
    W/L69-33
    ATS56-45
    O/U47-55-0
    FINAL SCORE
    108
    -
    95
    Miami
    Heat
    MIA
    Last 5 ATS
    W/L58-49
    ATS46-58
    O/U51-54-2
    SPREAD
    MONEYLINE
    OVER/UNDER
    Last 5 ATS
    69-33
    Win /Loss
    58-49
    56-45
    Spread
    46-58
    47-55-0
    Over / Under
    51-54-2
    Key Injuries
    Key Injuries
    Avatar
    SG
    Avatar
    C
    Key Injuries
    Avatar
    SF
    Avatar
    SG
    Avatar
    SF
    SPREAD
    MONEYLINE
    OVER/UNDER

    Simulation Picks

    SPREAD
    DEN @ MIA
    Subscribers Only

    Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks

    MONEYLINE
    DEN @ MIA
    Subscribers Only

    Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks

    OVER / UNDER
    DEN @ MIA
    Subscribers Only

    Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks

    0%
    PUBLIC
    0%
    MONEY
    0%
    PUBLIC
    0%
    MONEY
    Over0%
    PUBLIC
    Under0%
    Over
    MONEY
    Under

    Understanding Public and Money

    Read More

    Think of 'Public' as the percentage of people betting on each side and 'Money' as how much money is being bet. When there's a big difference between the 'Public' and 'Money' data, it usually means that the more serious bettors (referred to as 'Sharp Money') are favoring a particular side.

    Expert Picks

    Avatar
    Total 3pt Field GoalsNikola Jokic Over 1.5 Total 3pt Field Goals +139
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +464
    4-1 in Last 5 NBA Player Props Picks
    Allan's Analysis:

    The NBA Finals are back tonight and so are we with the process...specifically Nikola Jokic Over 1.5 threes. He's hit this in 10 of the Nuggets' 18 playoff games this postseason and we're due tonight. Yes this wager can be frustrating at times but just continue to look at the bigger picture and the plus odds. In the end we'll be profitable, not to mention who doesn't like watching the big fella load up from the bow! Miami should focus on keeping Jokic off the boards and the paint in general which should lead to a few extra open looks from downtown and some tokens in our pocket.

    Pick Made: Jun 09, 10:18 pm UTC on Caesars
    1st Half Total Points1st Half Under 106.5 -110
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    Mike's Analysis:

    Miami's path the winning this game is the defensive end of the floor on Jokic and Murray. I'm looking for a strong defensive effort on both sides to start this game. I'm also looking for tired legs on jump shots considering the short turnaround time between games three and four. Looking at the number of possessions so far in this series I'm projecting another low scoring first half.

    Pick Made: Jun 09, 9:44 pm UTC on Caesars
    1st Half Total Points1st Half Under 106 -110
    PUSH
    Unit1.0
    Grace's Analysis:

    The betting splits are lopsided on the full game total (211) with 28% of tickets and 49% of the handle on the under. Discrepancies like this where the money percentage is less than 50% put us on the same side of the books and sharps. Defense will be tighter. Fatigue could set in with just one off day between games -- in Game 3, Jokic played 44 minutes while Murray played 45. Butler has played 40+ min in 4 of his last 5 games, while Adebayo has played 40+ in 5 straight. Playing the first half instead of full game allows us less time for coaching adjustments and less time for Miami to get hot from 3.

    Pick Made: Jun 09, 9:32 pm UTC on Caesars
    Avatar
    Total PointsMichael Porter Jr. Under 10.5 Total Points -115
    LOSS
    Unit1.0
    Zack's Analysis:

    Michael Porter Jr. has had issues from three point range in the NBA Finals. He is just three for nineteen from long range and has seen his minutes reduced from Coach Michael Malone significantly. As a result his production has dropped each game from fourteen points in game one, five in game two, and two in game three. Take Porter Jr’s under.

    Pick Made: Jun 09, 7:24 pm UTC on Caesars
    Point SpreadMiami +3.5 -110
    LOSS
    Unit1.0
    +68
    3-2 in Last 5 NBA Picks
    +270
    6-3 in Last 9 MIA ATS Picks
    Bob's Analysis:

    Denver dominated game three in Miami. However, we saw that the Nuggets took game one at home then the zig-zag theory took effect with the Heat taking game two and Denver took game three. Miami has the better coach and Erik Spoelstra was able to make the necessary adjustments in game two to get the win. Jamal Murray does have a bad floor burn on his left hand, that was taped during practice, and he said it was fine but you never know what could happen during the course of the game.

    Pick Made: Jun 09, 6:50 pm UTC on Caesars
    Avatar
    Total PointsMichael Porter Jr. Over 10.5 Total Points -119
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    Micah's Analysis:

    The dagger for the Nuggets here would be if Michael Porter Jr. showed up and made some shots. He’s only 3-of-19 from 3-land in the Finals. When the first couple doesn’t hit, he’s left it alone and concentrated more on defense. In Game 1 he was active with 14 points on 5-of-16 shooting. This is a 50% shooter and he’s been reluctant, but once he hits one, he’ll take more, he’ll make more. This number is low for a player that averaged 17 ppg during the season. Porter Over 10.5 points.

    Pick Made: Jun 09, 4:31 pm UTC on Caesars
    Money LineDenver -165
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +130
    5-3 in Last 8 NBA Picks
    +50
    2-1 in Last 3 NBA ML Picks
    +275
    2-1 in Last 3 DEN ML Picks
    Micah's Analysis:

    The Heat shot 37% from the field in Game 3 but had only four turnovers. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo did their jobs, but the supporting cast didn’t do theirs as they have all playoffs. The Nuggets had 13 turnovers but had a 58-33 edge on the boards. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray played the two-man game brilliantly and Michael Porter and Bruce Brown didn’t do much but the X-factor that put the game away was Christian Braun’s enthusiastic 15-points. I think the Nuggets do something similar in Game 4 with Porter being the X-factor in this one. Nuggets to win, ML.

    Pick Made: Jun 09, 4:20 pm UTC on Caesars
    Avatar
    Total Points + ReboundsAaron Gordon Over 18.5 Total Points + Rebounds -117
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +500
    6-1 in Last 7 NBA Player Props Picks
    Mackenzie's Analysis:

    All the attention was on the power-duo for Denver in Game 3, and rightfully so. But behind the scenes, Aaron Gordon put up an impressive stat line himself with 11 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists. Gordan is certainly capable of hitting over this line, as he already has in all three games this series. Our model agrees, predicting the forward to rack up 21.2 points and rebounds. With Michael Porter Jr. struggling throughout this series, Michael Malone has has really honed in on Gordan being the third man of this offense.

    Pick Made: Jun 09, 4:06 pm UTC on Caesars
    Avatar
    Total PointsGabe Vincent Over 12.5 Total Points -125
    LOSS
    Unit1.0
    +1368.5
    70-45 in Last 115 NBA Player Props Picks
    Alex's Analysis:

    Gabe Vincent has been Miami's top guard through the playoffs, in addition to their third most consistent scorer behind Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. Vincent is averaging 16 PPG since game 1 of the ECF and has cleared this prop in his last 6/9 playoff games. The fourth year guard has attempted double digit field goals in seven consecutive games and I believe that is the key to cashing this prop. When Vincent has attempted 10+ field goals he has cashed in 10/14 playoff games (71%) and 18/25 regular season games (72%). With Tyler Herro ruled out for game 4, the Heat will need all the scoring help they can get and I expect Vincent to bounce back tonight after struggling in game 3.

    Pick Made: Jun 09, 2:47 pm UTC on Caesars
    Money LineDenver -165
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +1249
    16-3 in Last 19 NBA Picks
    +369
    16-8 in Last 24 NBA ML Picks
    +550
    11-4 in Last 15 MIA ML Picks
    Mike's Analysis:

    The Nuggets dominated Game 3 despite shooting just 5-for-18 from behind the arc. The Heat received a series-high 28 points from Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo posted 21 points and 17 rebounds, but they still lost by 15 points. While it might be difficult to expect Christian Braun to provide 15 points off the bench again, his ability to cut to the rim could be key in helping the Nuggets solve the Heat’s zone defense and/or trapping of Jamal Murray. The Nuggets are the better team, so while I expect this to be closer than Game 3, I still like them to go up 3-1 heading into Game 5 in Denver.

    Pick Made: Jun 09, 2:39 pm UTC on Caesars
    Avatar
    Total 3pt Field GoalsBruce Brown Over 0.5 Total 3pt Field Goals -157
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +1245
    28-13 in Last 41 NBA Player Props Picks
    Mike's Analysis:

    Bruce Brown continues to be a key bench player for the Nuggets. He has logged at least 21 minutes in all three of games of this series, and has played at least 27 minutes in both of the last two games with Michael Porter Jr. seeing a decline in playing time. Brown shot 35.8 percent from behind the arc during the regular season and has used his steady role to hit at least one three-pointer in eight of the last nine games, including in all three games against the Heat. With the Heat focusing on trying to slow down Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, look for Brown to hit at least one open three-pointer in this matchup.

    Pick Made: Jun 09, 2:31 pm UTC on Caesars
    Avatar
    Total PointsGabe Vincent Over 12.5 Total Points -125
    LOSS
    Unit1.0
    +1245
    28-13 in Last 41 NBA Player Props Picks
    Mike's Analysis:

    Gabe Vincent was a disappointment in Game 3, scoring seven points on 2-for-10 shooting from the field. He got into foul trouble in the first half, which may have broken his rhythm. Prior to that, he had scored at least 15 points in six of his previous eight games. With the Heat looking to avoid facing elimination on the road in Game 5, expect Vincent to bounce back with a better scoring performance at home.

    Pick Made: Jun 09, 2:23 pm UTC on Caesars
    Avatar
    Total PointsBruce Brown Over 9.5 Total Points -137
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    Larry's Analysis:

    Michael Porter Jr. is having a rough series; his minutes have declined from 43 to 26 to 21. Bruce Brown, who's quick enough to stay with the Heat's myriad 3-point shooters, has seen his minutes rise from 21 to 27 to 29. He finished with just five points on 1-of-5 shooting in Game 3 after scoring in double digits in the first two games. That makes him 13-5 to the Over on this prop in the playoffs. It's unlikely Christian Braun erupts again, so I'll back Brown to make his usual scoring impact off the bench.

    Pick Made: Jun 09, 3:41 am UTC on Caesars
    Point SpreadDenver -3.5 -110
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +318
    12-8 in Last 20 NBA ATS Picks
    +1925
    61-38-3 in Last 102 DEN ATS Picks
    Larry's Analysis:

    The Nuggets have won four straight road playoff games, and I like that to continue despite the all-in effort we are sure to see from Miami. Denver won Game 3 in blowout fashion despite Miami committing just four turnovers. The Heat have lost three straight home playoff games, and Tyler Herro won't be back Friday. Expect a much more competitive game than we saw Wednesday, but ultimately the Nuggets' size and superior talent wins out.

    Pick Made: Jun 09, 2:58 am UTC on Caesars

    Team Injuries

    Denver Nuggets
    Saturday, Jul 20, 2024
    Avatar
    SG
    Jalen Pickett
    GroinProbable
    Saturday, Jul 13, 2024
    Avatar
    C
    DaRon Holmes II
    AchillesOut
    Miami Heat
    Monday, Jul 22, 2024
    Avatar
    SF
    Keshad Johnson
    AnkleProbable
    Thursday, May 02, 2024
    Avatar
    SF
    Jimmy Butler
    KneeProbable
    Avatar
    SG
    Josh Richardson
    ShoulderProbable