The NBA Finals are back tonight and so are we with the process...specifically Nikola Jokic Over 1.5 threes. He's hit this in 10 of the Nuggets' 18 playoff games this postseason and we're due tonight. Yes this wager can be frustrating at times but just continue to look at the bigger picture and the plus odds. In the end we'll be profitable, not to mention who doesn't like watching the big fella load up from the bow! Miami should focus on keeping Jokic off the boards and the paint in general which should lead to a few extra open looks from downtown and some tokens in our pocket.

Miami's path the winning this game is the defensive end of the floor on Jokic and Murray. I'm looking for a strong defensive effort on both sides to start this game. I'm also looking for tired legs on jump shots considering the short turnaround time between games three and four. Looking at the number of possessions so far in this series I'm projecting another low scoring first half.

The betting splits are lopsided on the full game total (211) with 28% of tickets and 49% of the handle on the under. Discrepancies like this where the money percentage is less than 50% put us on the same side of the books and sharps. Defense will be tighter. Fatigue could set in with just one off day between games -- in Game 3, Jokic played 44 minutes while Murray played 45. Butler has played 40+ min in 4 of his last 5 games, while Adebayo has played 40+ in 5 straight. Playing the first half instead of full game allows us less time for coaching adjustments and less time for Miami to get hot from 3.

Michael Porter Jr. has had issues from three point range in the NBA Finals. He is just three for nineteen from long range and has seen his minutes reduced from Coach Michael Malone significantly. As a result his production has dropped each game from fourteen points in game one, five in game two, and two in game three. Take Porter Jr’s under.

Denver dominated game three in Miami. However, we saw that the Nuggets took game one at home then the zig-zag theory took effect with the Heat taking game two and Denver took game three. Miami has the better coach and Erik Spoelstra was able to make the necessary adjustments in game two to get the win. Jamal Murray does have a bad floor burn on his left hand, that was taped during practice, and he said it was fine but you never know what could happen during the course of the game.

The dagger for the Nuggets here would be if Michael Porter Jr. showed up and made some shots. He’s only 3-of-19 from 3-land in the Finals. When the first couple doesn’t hit, he’s left it alone and concentrated more on defense. In Game 1 he was active with 14 points on 5-of-16 shooting. This is a 50% shooter and he’s been reluctant, but once he hits one, he’ll take more, he’ll make more. This number is low for a player that averaged 17 ppg during the season. Porter Over 10.5 points.

The Heat shot 37% from the field in Game 3 but had only four turnovers. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo did their jobs, but the supporting cast didn’t do theirs as they have all playoffs. The Nuggets had 13 turnovers but had a 58-33 edge on the boards. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray played the two-man game brilliantly and Michael Porter and Bruce Brown didn’t do much but the X-factor that put the game away was Christian Braun’s enthusiastic 15-points. I think the Nuggets do something similar in Game 4 with Porter being the X-factor in this one. Nuggets to win, ML.

All the attention was on the power-duo for Denver in Game 3, and rightfully so. But behind the scenes, Aaron Gordon put up an impressive stat line himself with 11 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists. Gordan is certainly capable of hitting over this line, as he already has in all three games this series. Our model agrees, predicting the forward to rack up 21.2 points and rebounds. With Michael Porter Jr. struggling throughout this series, Michael Malone has has really honed in on Gordan being the third man of this offense.

Gabe Vincent has been Miami's top guard through the playoffs, in addition to their third most consistent scorer behind Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. Vincent is averaging 16 PPG since game 1 of the ECF and has cleared this prop in his last 6/9 playoff games. The fourth year guard has attempted double digit field goals in seven consecutive games and I believe that is the key to cashing this prop. When Vincent has attempted 10+ field goals he has cashed in 10/14 playoff games (71%) and 18/25 regular season games (72%). With Tyler Herro ruled out for game 4, the Heat will need all the scoring help they can get and I expect Vincent to bounce back tonight after struggling in game 3.

The Nuggets dominated Game 3 despite shooting just 5-for-18 from behind the arc. The Heat received a series-high 28 points from Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo posted 21 points and 17 rebounds, but they still lost by 15 points. While it might be difficult to expect Christian Braun to provide 15 points off the bench again, his ability to cut to the rim could be key in helping the Nuggets solve the Heat’s zone defense and/or trapping of Jamal Murray. The Nuggets are the better team, so while I expect this to be closer than Game 3, I still like them to go up 3-1 heading into Game 5 in Denver.

Bruce Brown continues to be a key bench player for the Nuggets. He has logged at least 21 minutes in all three of games of this series, and has played at least 27 minutes in both of the last two games with Michael Porter Jr. seeing a decline in playing time. Brown shot 35.8 percent from behind the arc during the regular season and has used his steady role to hit at least one three-pointer in eight of the last nine games, including in all three games against the Heat. With the Heat focusing on trying to slow down Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, look for Brown to hit at least one open three-pointer in this matchup.

Gabe Vincent was a disappointment in Game 3, scoring seven points on 2-for-10 shooting from the field. He got into foul trouble in the first half, which may have broken his rhythm. Prior to that, he had scored at least 15 points in six of his previous eight games. With the Heat looking to avoid facing elimination on the road in Game 5, expect Vincent to bounce back with a better scoring performance at home.

Michael Porter Jr. is having a rough series; his minutes have declined from 43 to 26 to 21. Bruce Brown, who's quick enough to stay with the Heat's myriad 3-point shooters, has seen his minutes rise from 21 to 27 to 29. He finished with just five points on 1-of-5 shooting in Game 3 after scoring in double digits in the first two games. That makes him 13-5 to the Over on this prop in the playoffs. It's unlikely Christian Braun erupts again, so I'll back Brown to make his usual scoring impact off the bench.

The Nuggets have won four straight road playoff games, and I like that to continue despite the all-in effort we are sure to see from Miami. Denver won Game 3 in blowout fashion despite Miami committing just four turnovers. The Heat have lost three straight home playoff games, and Tyler Herro won't be back Friday. Expect a much more competitive game than we saw Wednesday, but ultimately the Nuggets' size and superior talent wins out.