Toronto’s Kevin Gausman comes off one of his worst starts of the season. He allowed six earned runs in 4.2 innings to the Twins at home. Now, he faces a Texas lineup hitting .282 with a .853 OPS at home against righties. The Blue Jays hit lefties very well on the road, .267 average, but Texas' Martin Perez owns a 1.40 home ERA. The Rangers bats have cooled off, but they do give Perez run support at home.

Texas may be tied for the most home wins in MLB, but they are on a recent skid. They have lost four of their past five home games, including losing three of four in their last series against the LA Angels. Friday’s starter in Martin Perez has been rocked two of his last three starts, and is coming off his shortest outing of the season. Back the road favorites in Toronto.

The Rangers are for real and are not going away anytime soon. My model has Texas winning 92 games and winning the American League West. On Friday the Rangers start Martin Perez, who has pitched extremely well at Globe Life. In 25 2/3 innings he has an ERA of 1.40. The Blue Jays offense versus lefties on the road has been below average over the past 60 days, while the Rangers offense at home versus righties has been No. 1 in baseball over that period. Toronto starter Kevin Gausman has been better at home (2.61 ERA) than on the road (3.76).

Kevin Gausman is really good. A Cy Young Award contender. All due respect to him. And Martin Perez has struggled this year. But you're giving me one of the best teams in baseball as a home underdog? At a +118 price? *And* my model has Texas winning in 60% of its simulations? Yes please.

Friday game. I'm getting the team with the second-best home record and a pitcher (Martin Perez) who is 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA at home at a price of -135 on a runline at home? Word up! I get that the Jays are favored behind Kevin Gausman, but this is a no-brainer play to me. Just have to hope no key Texas batters are hurt tonight in the finale against the Angels.