2023 NFL Draft props: Line movement links Bijan Robinson to Falcons, plus more odds-related news
The betting market has been an early indicator of NFL Draft news in recent years, so let's take a look at the latest movement.
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When did you realize the Jaguars were going to select Travon Walker No. 1 overall last year? While reporting the week of the draft made it seem like Aidan Hutchinson could have been the pick, as expected for much of draft season, the shift to Walker in No. 1 overall pick betting markets over the previous weekend indicated the Jaguars had settled on their man and the information in traditional media had yet to catch up. That's just one example in recent years of the betting market being ahead of conventional wisdom, and paying attention to how the markets move is crucial to predicting how the NFL Draft will unfold.
Last year, I delivered a top-five mock draft (out of 32 experts, including the biggest names in NFL Draft media) in part by focusing on what the betting-market trends were saying. This year, I'm going to provide you regular updates on what's happening in one betting market so you can be ahead of the curve as well. I'm focusing on the FanDuel lines, as those are the easiest for me to pull data from regularly for my draft workbook.
Today, we're starting with Texas running back Bijan Robinson. Debate rages over whether any running back is worth taking in the first round in this era of football, much less in the top half of Round 1. That's led to Robinson falling into the 20s in many mocks over the last few months and being assigned to teams like the Cowboys, Bills and Bengals.
But even if you personally believe running backs aren't worth spending premium draft capital on, all that matters is what the 32 general managers believe, and that group has proven time and again they don't all follow the same blueprint. Robinson has felt like a top-10 pick to me all along, and the latest line movement suggests the Atlanta Falcons could be the team to jump.
On Friday, a defensive lineman or edge rusher was listed as -250 favorites to be the Falcons' first pick, with running back next at +600. That market is off the board now, but FanDuel has posted odds on who will be the No. 8 overall pick (Atlanta's first selection), and Robinson is the favorite there at +250, followed by edge rushers Tyree Wilson (+350), Lukas Van Ness (+400) and Nolan Smith (+500).
There's been related movement in the "Team to draft Bijan Robinson" market. On Friday, the Cowboys were the favorite at +500, followed by the Falcons at +600. Now the Falcons are the clear favorites at +250, followed by the Cowboys and Texans (who have the No. 2 and No. 12 picks) at +600. Two other teams picking the top 10 (Lions, Eagles) are among the three up next at +1000, though both also have picks later in the first round.
All throughout draft season, it seemed obvious the Texans would take a quarterback with their first selection. How could they not, considering the state of the position for the franchise? Even after the Panthers engineered a trade up to No. 1, it was assumed the Texans would take whichever of Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud was left with the second pick.
But while reporting has emerged that Houston is enamored with Young, it doesn't seem like they have the same excitement over Stroud or potentially any of the other first-round quarterbacks with the second pick. And that's a problem, as Young quickly moved to the favorite to go No. 1 overall last week and strengthened his hold on the spot over the weekend, now checking in at -400 to be Carolina's pick at the top.
While Stroud is still the favorite to go No. 2, momentum is building for Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson to be the pick. Stroud was -105 in the No. 2 overall pick market on Friday but sits at only +150 as of Monday afternoon, while Anderson has moved from +330 to +200. My mock draft on Friday had the Texans taking Anderson and then trading up from No. 12 to secure a quarterback later in the top 10, and I wouldn't be surprised to see this scenario continue to gain steam over the course of this week.
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