2022 NFL Draft odds: Winner of Texans vs. Jaguars likely loses chance at No. 1 overall pick, choice between Aidan Hutchinson, Kayvon Thibodeaux

There's at least one Toilet Bowl game every NFL season and it arrives for 2021 on Sunday as the 2-11 Houston Texans visit the 2-11 Jacksonville Jaguars. How great would a tie be? The winner will be a big loser in one regard in that it almost surely would not have a chance at the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. The current -110 favorite to be chosen first is Michigan defensive end Aidan Hutchinson with Oregon pass-rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux at +150 and then a big drop-off.

If the Detroit Lions (1-11-1) lose out, they will get the No. 1 overall pick and probably would take the local boy Hutchinson because there's no quarterback prospect worth of that pick in the Class of 2022. The Lions probably should have at least 1-2 more wins as they have lost three times on walk-off field goals. Detroit is +13 on Sunday vs. Arizona, and trips to Atlanta and Seattle are next.

One game to circle for the Lions: Week 18 at home vs. Green Bay. What if the Packers have their playoff seeding wrapped up and rest their starters? The Lions are -250 favorites to finish with the fewest wins in the NFL – the team with the fewest wins earns the top pick – and that tie in Pittsburgh could actually end up huge for them.

Houston is +275 to finish with the fewest wins, and the Texans' point differential of minus-179 is the NFL worst. The Texans are the only team to have lost five games this season by 20 points or more.

One tiebreaker regarding draft position is strength of schedule – the team with the easier strength of schedule wins any head-to-head tiebreaker because it's presumed to be the worse team by losing to an easier schedule. The Texans close vs. the Chargers, at 49ers and vs. Titans, so they probably aren't winning again. Rookie QB Davis Mills is 0-7 as a starter.

Jacksonville (+800 for fewest wins) for sure can kiss the top pick in 2022 goodbye with a victory Sunday because it would mean a season sweep of the Texans and losing that head-to-head draft tiebreaker. In Week 1, the Jags won 37-21 in Houston behind 332 yards passing (still a career high) and three scores from rookie Trevor Lawrence, although he was also picked three times. That was a bit of foreshadowing. Jacksonville could win again next Sunday at the Jets and then closes at the Patriots and home to the Colts.

The New York Jets are +2000 to finish with the fewest wins in the NFL but at 3-10 already probably have blown their top pick chances. They are 9-point dogs Sunday in Miami. 

Detroit last had the No. 1 overall pick in 2009 and took Matthew Stafford (gone now). Houston last had it in 2014 and took Jadeveon Clowney (gone now). Jacksonville had it this year and grabbed Lawrence. The Jets' lone time owning it was in 1996 when they took Keyshawn Johnson.

Via SportsLine oddsmakers: Who is the No. 1 overall pick in 2022 NFL Draft?

• Aidan Hutchinson -110
• Kayvon Thibodeaux +150
• Kenny Pickett +800
• Matt Corral +900

Current 2022 NFL Draft order (final 14 spots determined by playoff results)

1. Detroit Lions

Record: 1-11-1 (strength of schedule: .518)

2. Houston Texans

Record: 2-11 (.509)

3. Jacksonville Jaguars

Record: 2-11 (.538)

4. New York Jets

Record: 3-10 (.509)

5. New York Giants

Record: 4-9 (.550)

6. New York Giants (from Chicago Bears)

Chicago Bears' record: 4-9 (.553)

7. Carolina Panthers

Record: 5-8 (.467)

8. New York Jets (from Seattle Seahawks)

Seattle Seahawks' record: 5-8 (.518)

9. Philadelphia Eagles (from Miami Dolphins)

Miami Dolphins' record: 6-7 (.450)

10. Atlanta Falcons

Record: 6-7 (.479)

11. Philadelphia Eagles

Record: 6-7 (.482)

12. Minnesota Vikings

Record: 6-7 (.506)

13. New Orleans Saints

Record: 6-7 (.527)

14. Las Vegas Raiders

Record: 6-7 (.530)

15. Pittsburgh Steelers

Record: 6-6-1 (.494)

16. Cincinnati Bengals

Record: 7-6 (.447)

17. Denver Broncos

Record: 7-6 (.450)

18. Cleveland Browns

Record: 7-6 (.509)

Looking for the best picks against the spread, sharp plays on the total, and props you can take straight to the pay window? Join Jonathan Coachman on the Early Edge as he speaks with SportsLine's top handicappers to preview the day's biggest games. We promise to keep it short, sweet and to put some green in your pocket. Early Edge is in your feed every single day by 11 a.m. ET. Subscribe right here on YouTube to watch daily, plus don't miss the Early Edge specials and live shows!