SportsLine Projection Model evaluates American League playoff picture before Wild Card game

On Tuesday evening, the Washington Nationals emerged victorious over the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Wild Card game and they did so in memorable fashion. Less than 24 hours later, the American League version will begin with the Tampa Bay Rays traveling to California to take on the Oakland A's in prime time. 

The Houston Astros, operating as the No. 1 overall seed in Major League Baseball, await the winner of the Rays-A's match-up and, no matter their opponent, Houston will be a substantial betting favorite to advance to the ALCS. That comes with the territory when considering Houston is the overall favorite (with 2-1 odds) to win the 2019 World Series but things can shift from a projection standpoint based on which team the Astros will face. 

At present, the A's are consensus favorites to top the Rays in Wild Card action, with the money line sitting in the -130 to -135 range. Some of that undoubtedly stems from home-field advantage in the game but SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh also gives Oakland the edge. The model suggests that the A's have a 54.1 percent chance to advance to the ALDS and, while that isn't a massive edge, it could inform an opinion on the available money line. 

Looking ahead, the A's have just a 16.5 percent chance to land in the ALCS, with the Rays having a 14.3 percent chance. Those numbers will skyrocket for whichever team wins the Wild Card game but, for the moment, the Astros have a substantial projected edge, sitting at 69.3 percent to win the ALDS and 47.7 percent to represent the American League in the World Series. 

The SportsLine model does find betting value in exactly one World Series future but, as Wednesday evening's match-up approaches, the Astros await and there is plenty of intrigue as to what the one-game result will be.