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Sat 07/31 | 10:10 PM UTC | St. Petersburg
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Boston Red Sox 63-42, +1649 ML
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Over 8.5-105
Tampa Bay Rays 62-42, +1232 ML
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Under 8.5-115

Expert Picks

Boston 5 @ Tampa Bay 9 | 07/31 | 10:10 PM UTC

Boston +105

LOSS

ANALYSIS: Ryan Yarbrough has been beaten up by Boston this year: 14 runs (11 earned) in 7 innings with just four strikeouts across two appearances. He is also worse at home (5.40 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) than he is on the road (3.51 ERA, 1.08 WHIP), and I think he will again struggle in Tampa against the division rival. Meanwhile Nathan Eovaldi has been great all year, and the vast majority of his non-quality starts have been when the team has traveled to see AL West teams. He should be on-point today to help Boston bounce back after last night’s loss.

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Justin Perri

Model Guy
+43 2-1 IN LAST 3 MLB PICKS

Season Splits

63-42, +1649 ML
62-42, +1232 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
60%
63-42, +1649
62-42, +1232
59%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
60%
30-20, +1208
32-20, +330
61%
As Underdog or Even
STATUS
As Favorite
62%
27-16, +1675
39-21, +506
65%
When Line was -110 to +120
MONEY LINE
When Line was -130 to -100
63%
17-10, +782
12-10, +15
54%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
62%
18-11, +1194
26-12, +444
68%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
51%
16-15, +1
17-10, +582
63%
vs Teams Allowing 3.9 to 4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
63%
19-11, +678
41-26, +648
61%
3rd game without a day off
REST
3rd game without a day off
60%
45-29, +1136
46-28, +1340
62%
vs TB
HEAD TO HEAD
vs BOS
57%
4-3, +140
3-4, -165
42%
when Nathan Eovaldi starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Ryan Yarbrough starts
55%
11-9, -43
8-7, +154
53%