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Sun 07/25 | 5:05 PM UTC | Baltimore
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Washington Nationals 45-53, -871 ML
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Over 10.5-105
Baltimore Orioles 34-64, -1289 ML
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Under 10.5-115

Expert Picks

Washington 4 @ Baltimore 5 | 07/25 | 5:05 PM UTC

OVER 10

LOSS

ANALYSIS: There are a few factors pushing me toward the Over. I'm happy to fade Baltimore LHP John Means in his second start back from the IL. He struggled against the Rays last time out, allowing five runs in five innings while recording only two strikeouts. I also don't have much faith in Washington RHP Paulo Espino, who has an 89-mph fastball and bottom-tier strikeout numbers, as well as a high expected slugging percentage of .453. We also have weather that supports a good hitting environment and an umpire that is 12-7 on the Over this season. A tight strike zone could help us get a few crucial walks and the winds blowing out should help bring them home. Grab the Over.

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Justin Perri

Model Guy
+90 2-1 IN LAST 3 MLB PICKS
+185 4-2 IN LAST 6 BAL O/U PICKS

Season Splits

45-53, -871 ML
34-64, -1289 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
46%
45-52, -772
33-64, -1394
34%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
40%
18-27, -496
15-30, -1059
33%
As Underdog or Even
STATUS
As Underdog or Even
36%
22-38, -1016
32-58, -871
35%
When Line was -120 to +110
MONEY LINE
When Line was -120 to +110
53%
15-13, +106
6-5, +122
54%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Underdog
36%
13-23, -464
14-26, -736
35%
vs Teams That Win <46% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win 46-54% of Games
57%
19-14, +6
7-12, -157
36%
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
50%
22-22, -365
16-35, -1283
31%
3rd game without a day off
REST
3rd game without a day off
49%
34-35, -343
24-41, -264
36%
vs BAL
HEAD TO HEAD
vs WAS
60%
3-2, -28
2-3, -65
40%
when Paolo Espino starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when John Means starts
50%
3-3, -66
5-8, -132
38%